What if . . . ?

We well remember the drama surrounding the 2010 election result. In the end, it came down to Independents Windsor and Oakeshott siding with Labor for two reasons: Labor’s National Broadband Network (NBN) and the promise from Julia Gillard that she would not disrupt Parliament by calling an early election.

Given that a number of Liberal backbenchers were vying for the NBN to come to their electorates and that the government did serve its full term, Winsdor and Oakeshott made the right call.

Some optimists are suggesting that the 2013 election might be a repeat of 2010.

Let’s assume it is. And let’s assume it again comes down to a couple of Independents having the deciding vote.

What would they vote on and why?

I realise it is difficult to answer given that the Coalition have not released much in the way of policies, so we can only go on what we know so far.

Go fo it.

Note: This is a repost of an old post, which today seems more relevent than the time it was originally published.

52 comments on “What if . . . ?

  1. Won’t happen, grasping at straws.

    Will be a DD if the coalition does not control the Senate. The so called global warming has destroyed Turnbull, Rudd, Gillard and next the Greens if they stand in the way of the legislation to repeal the tax.

  2. As the % of the population that feels they can no longer control their own destinies rises, so follows the inevitable rise in militant dissent. Mr Murdoch & the Coalition should be careful of the methods used to achieve their ends…

    People get angry when they realise they have been manipulated by the powerful for their own nefarious purposes…

  3. What would they vote on and why?

    Probably similar to 2010 Migs – NBN, the carbon price, pokies. Mr Abbott has already said he won’t negotiate to form government, so that only leaves the possibility of a Labor-led minority government again…

  4. Howard has as much chance of being GG as a hung parliament…but still, it would be fun watching the left scream in horror.

    Bob Ellis? Right up there with Clive in the loony stakes!

  5. I am about to go and have a meeting with one of those independents,.. Bob Katter ( shades of name dropping Scaper 😉 ) Bob is here in the Hill to support his candidate in Farrer, Ken Trewin.
    Has anyone got any Q’s that I should ask???

  6. But Scaper, from past comments of yours I have the impression that you hate Howard. Why then would you find it funny if he became GG?

  7. Senator Carr now on ABC 24

    Terrifying to think, this time next week, the elder Bishop could be in this role.

  8. Mr. Carr advising voters, especially those from other countries, that all boxes have to be numbered. No crosses etc, 1 2 3……

    This is different to state elections, where there is optional prefernetila votes.

  9. Well, Howard does have experience in the role of GG. After all during his long disastrous reign, of PM, he made sure that the GG was pushed out of the way, at all times.

    He seen himself as head of state.

  10. How many voting from Christmas Is and Manus Is? Just kidding.
    There have been 52 polls since Election was called
    Labor was ahead in how many?
    Another 1-2% drop in Labor primary vote is likely before 7/9 this will turn it into a

    Ruddslide. The Primary votewill be sub 30%that means big pain.

    And why? lousy campaign, lies highlighted by Public Servants on Thurs
    (bet they got a Ruddy gob full) and more corruption with ICAC Inquiry
    All highly damaging and negative for ‘bad brand’ Labor.
    It will b30+ seats lost,about the same as per Gillard..
    Just get over it.

  11. LOVO @ 1:07. Question for Katter. Extend KR and TA thought bubble on Northern Territory to all regional areas to decentralise businesses and reduce costs of higher capital cost in metropolitan areas.

  12. Mr. Carr advising voters, especially those from other countries, that all boxes have to be numbered. No crosses etc, 1 2 3

    Certainly when it comes to House of Representatives all boxes need to be numbered but when it comes to the Senate it’s a bit more complicated. if you vote (only) above the line then only one box needs a number. If you vote below the line then things become a bit more complicated. For example I voted both above the line AND below the line.

    Because I marked 82 boxes below the line without any error, then those counting will use my below the line preference vote. If you vote below the line there is still some flexibility. You are allowed up to three ‘errors’ and you only have to fill in 90% of the boxes to make a valid vote. More errors than that then they will use your above the line vote.

  13. Katter not here til tommorrow now 🙄
    @Gilly, I will mention that as it will fit in nicely with my NBN Q’s…. I think that the NBN (FTTH) solution would be a boon to regional areas and would allow decentralisation to be more effective. http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/why-the-nbn-will-win-labor-the-2013-election/
    I have just returned from one of our IT shops where I struck up a convo with a group of tech savvy young’ns. These lads were bagging Abbotts fraudband to the max. They were digusted at the thought of not being able to have the ‘real deal’ NBN. One lad (about 20yrs) said that he had only recently enrolled to vote because of this issue and that some of his friends had enrolled for the same reason.
    I asked about other issues such as Gonski, NDIS and boat people and got only an audible ‘huh’ to these….. ah the young 😉 so care free 🙂 ..they only had their heads around the NBN issue…. they said it was a major talking point for them and their peers…….. needless to say I was very buoyed by this chat with these non-landliners 😉

  14. I’ll quote from Antony Green.

    The instructions say you must fill in every square, but the savings provision of the act require that only 90% of the squares be filled in, and will allow a maximum of three sequencing errors. A sequencing error is any doubling up of numbers and any break in the number sequence.

    If you want to be ultra safe, fill in below the line and the fill in one of the above the line squares. The below the line vote takes priority, but if proves to be informal, the ballot paper will revert to the above the line option.


  15. MEMO
    To: All sitting Labor Members
    From: CHQ Melbourne

    Please proceed to make the following arrangements , consider as urgent.
    1. Book Mini Movers booking for 10 Sept
    2. Book heavy duty shredder and commence evening of 6 Sept. Only shred
    documents, no furniture or staff.
    3. Proceed to nearest Centrelink Office at 900Hrs Monday 9 Sept. You must be
    at the head of the job line as there will be quite an exodus of paid and unpaid
    Staff from various ALP Officers across the country.
    4. Ensure all vacated offices are left in tip top shape and to avoid another scandal
    leave all Government Furniture, Fittings and Equipment.
    If you have survived , consider yourself lucky. Work hard , Rebuild , No backstabbing and you may be in Government in a decade.

    Your fearless leader
    Ps I resigned at the beginning of the week and now reside overseas.

  16. What is Direct Action about?

    “……………The Coalition will not increase funding for its “Direct Action” even if the climate policy fails to deliver Australia’s promised greenhouse gas reductions, an outcome several attempts to model the plan have indicated is very likely.

    Speaking at the National Press Club, Tony Abbott attacked the “almost unimaginable” long-term costs of Labor’s emissions trading scheme, but would not commit to any modelling of his own scheme despite two recent studies showing it would either cost billions more than budgeted or fail to meet Australia’s internationally pledged target.

    “The bottom line is we will spend as much as we have budgeted, no more and and no less. We will get as much environmental improvement, as much emission reduction as we can for the spending we have budgeted,” Abbott said.

    “We are very confident we can achieve the 5% target … but in the end we have told you the money we will spend – and we won’t spend any more,” he said…………”


  17. If I was benevolent dictator (or an Independent with the balance of power) action on climate change has to be both an immediate and long term goal. Pricing carbon and investing in renewable energy are so obviously crucial measures that must be addressed now with a ramp up plan as our population grows. More should be done to make recycling commercially viable/profitable.

    NBN is also absolutely crucial to keep pace with basically all my other priorities – education, health, aged care, productivity.

    Childcare, closing the gap for Aboriginal people, an increase in Newstart, urban and high speed rail projects, increasing foreign aid and our humanitarian intake.

    I could go on…..

  18. List of Abbott backflips since the Press Club speech.

    Drones to assist in border protection. Gone. Apparently border protection isn’t important any more now he thinks he’s certain to win.

    Increased funding for Defence on hold. Borders and Defence not important now apparently after saying how important they were for the last six years.

    Visit to Indonesia to pave the way to buy boats and assist in stopping smugglers at the source. No longer on the agenda. See previous comments on border protection no longer being important to Abbott.

    5% target on carbon emissions. Gone, says we can’t afford it.

    If Abbott can so easily lie to you all and drop promises at the drop a hat with nary a second thought then think of those he will break in government, which will be just about all of them.

  19. What Peter Garrett said just before the 2007 election.

    So over this campaign but would like to see a more positive theme from the Libs, especially on the last day or two of this campaign. Put a suggestion forward to a member of the team. Based on a word beginning with ‘c’. It is agreed.

  20. No, Rudd said when the budgets affords it, just another policy in the never, never!

    Why was taken away in the first place? Labor, start a fire in the lounge room, run out the back, come running in the front and claims hero status when they put the fire out.


  21. Kaye,has he said something since. It is not what I heard him say. Rudd was very careful with his words. Carefully said he felt for these people, but worded it in a way that he was talking about all unemployed, not necessary single mothers.

    . Said that they have discussed it many times, but something had to be done.

    I got the feeling, that he was walking both sides of the fence.

    Putting these mothers back to where they were, leaves a big problem. What does one do with all; the mothers that were not covered by Howard’s grand father clause.

    The mistake was not when they bought them in lime, with those who have had kids since. The problem is that they are not been given enough assistance to get into the workforce.

    I hope I have got it right, Not rescinding the decision, but giving all parents in the same situation, more help to work.

    Same for unemployment payments. More money, but not necessary putting benefits up.

    Kaye, maybe he said something later on, and I have it wrong.

  22. Abbott with Leigh Sales. Abbott asks the voters to trust him.. One good reason, why should we. Pro-gramme must be recorded.

  23. Notice when Abbott gets narked with questioning from women, he starts repeating there Christian names.

    Talking rubbish, keeps launching into slogans,.

  24. Who is the one under pressure,, and is suppose to be losing.?

    Rudd on later this week,.

    Gee, he was really bad.

  25. Any comments on that recorded interview. Worse, if possible than the earlier NPC effort.

    There is still 15% undecideds. That is all it takes.

  26. Fear not Michael, if he gets over that line, he cannot survive for long.

    Why does he keep talking this country down,. saying we have no influence in the world.

    Wherein the hell, is he coming from.

  27. We’re lower taxing than Howard and Costello: Wong

    Politifact. True.

    Abbott will be higher taxing than Howard. Future Politifact: True.

    Right wingers making excuses for Abbott’s failures and lying for him. True.

  28. Why was taken away in the first place?

    For a supposed “insider”, the low-life scum-bucket doesn’t seem to understand that the change was made by Howard in 2006! 🙄

  29. Fed up, I would suggest that Abbott says that we have no influence in the world due to the fact that his knowledge and interest in international affairs amounts to zero. In fact if one might use that term, Abbott would probably think that international affairs refers to Russian female basketball players.

  30. Did anyone notice the smile of respect on the blond that took Rudd on early, on Abbott’s PPL. I think he might have a convert.

    Mayne Jones will remember, he should show respect to those he has on his panel.

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