The election date

Whilst the election date of September 14 has been known for some time, since Kevin Rudd’s elevation to PM there has been enough media speculation to suggest that this date is no longer set in stone. Tony Abbott certainly doesn’t think it is, given his daily calls for the ‘new’ election date to be called, and preferably earlier.

Of course he would. Up until the last week he has held a commanding lead in the opinion polls. He would have been PM by now if only an election were held when he wanted it.

I’ve been of the opinion that Rudd would defer the election for a couple of weeks, giving him that bit of extra time to unhinge Abbott. It is without doubt that the unhinging has started, as the events of the past few days have shown.

Many of us old die hards have considered that an unhinged Abbott could turn out to be Labor’s best political weapon during an election campaign but subsequently harboured some concerns that if Abbott were to be replaced by Turnball, then it could work against Labor. Cook Abbott too quickly and see him fall on his sword too far out from the election may not be to Labor’s advantage.

So here’s a thought.

If the polls continue to maintain a swing in favour of Labor and Abbott’s credibility continues to deteriorate under the recent public scrutiny, could Rudd seize this as an opportunity to ‘lock’ Abbott in as leader of the Opposition by calling an early election?

What do you think?

37 comments on “The election date

  1. This is the question….I would never say never but there is very little chance of Turnbull getting up. Abbott is locked in and will lose this election as his credibility will deteriorate as he is exposed as a fake.

  2. Bishop and Co have commented too many times on how the LNP don’t dump unpopular leaders. They don’t like to lose face so the next few weeks are a great opportunity for the ALP to apply some serious hurt to Tony.

  3. Hmm…there are a few factors in play here, the most prominent is the proposed referendum on Constitutional recognition of local councils. As others have pointed out, a referendum takes time to organize especially if it is to be held in conjunction with the plebiscite. Therefore, the most likely earliest date is mid September but again, this clashes with Yom Kippur and Rudd has already signaled that the 14th is not an option.
    The second factor, and God knows this could only happen in Australia, is the AFL Grand Final. God forbid that a trivial matter such as who will govern the nation for the next three years should interfere with this crucial sporting event.
    Therefore, I would argue that an early election that locks Abbott in as Opposition leader is unlikely, despite its appeal.
    Finally, I would also caution against getting too optimistic or over confident about the outcome. The race has not yet begun, and while Abbott is looking dazed and confused at the moment, don’t underestimate LNP machine! A month ago, they looked like a certainty and now that the chance of victory seems to be slipping from their grasp, they WILL use every device and dirty trick in the book to regain their hold and their first line of defense will be the MSM which will editorialize along the lines of ‘while Rudd has revived the ALP’s fortunes, it remains a party that is deeply divided…and these divisions cannot lead to the trust or confidence of the electorate….blah..blah… therefore we believe that the Coalition should be the choice of the electorate… or words to this effect.
    Don’t get me wrong, I would like to believe that the ALP CAN win, but it’s going to be close, and it’s going to be really dirty.

  4. Hmmm I’m flummoxed. They’re rattled. Better to lose face than lose an ‘unlosable’ election? The msm will hold ranks and support the LNP with whatever story necessary. ‘TA steps aside for greater good’ Who or what is the power that has the call to replace abbott if necessary?

  5. Kevin should wait … and wait. The longer he waits, the more he does Abbott’s head in (which is a beautiful thing to watch). It’s a slow torture, along the lines of Keating’s “I will do him slowly.”

    I think Rudd may be secretly enjoying the great unhinging. I know I am.

  6. Teddy Sea, I don’t think Liealot has it in his DNA to step aside for the greater good of anything. His thirst for the PMship is all consuming; they’d have to kill him to prise him out of LOTO and even then his cold dead fingers would be clinging to the door frame.

  7. Tony won’t step aside and I don’t believe Malcolm will challenge. Isn’t it in Malcolm’s best interests to wait till Abbott loses the election, then step in to take over? He then (hopefully) gets to remodel the LNP back to a more centralist party.
    If Malcolm challenges now (and wins) he will have to marshall a bunch of right-wing nutbags. This would put him into a position similar to Julia Gillard’s. It’s a no-win situation (in my view).

  8. Jane, I’m still in a bit of pain from my recent operation. I’m coping quite well, however, simple things like laughing can increase the level of pain from about 2/10 to something like 9/10.

    I hence ask that you refrain from making me laugh. :mrgreen:

  9. it’s Kevin 07 all over again, and he’s messing with Abbott’s head just like he did with Howard. Im going out on a limb & predicting a Labor win (just). NewsPoll have a dead heat, and Abbott is trailing Rudd badly as preferred PM. I’m thinking the youth vote will be critical, and younger folks love the daggy Uncle Kev. He’s social media savvy, wants to act on climate change and is pro same sex marriage. By contrast Abbott is old fashioned. One trick Tony is finally getting media scrutiny, and is looking decidedly dodgy.

  10. LMHO it would give me great pleasure to see the scenario you have painted Jane .. especially those finger marks in the door frame! A good laugh … thank you!

  11. If Abbott was smart he’d call a debate with Kev…. just to show him how wrong, he, and the ALP are… and ‘how’ more betterer the LNP are, ay…. 😉
    If Tony’s dinkom, why would he ‘run away’ from a chance at transparency…. 😆

  12. They are back to the old Kevin is all talk no action meme. Both the media and opposition are hammering it. This time it is particularly amusing though as it’s blatantly obvious it’s Abbott whose all talk and no action especially in light of refusing to debate Rudd on something Abbott says he’s better at, the economy. Some have picked up on this projection so it looks like the free run for Abbott if not over is stuttering.

    And we had on ABC radio this morning Pyne saying the opposition would keep Gonski for those states that had signed up to it.

    This now means the Coalition have promised to take up every Labor policy except the MRT, along with the a difference in asylum seeker policy being their already doomed turn back the boats provision.

    Why vote for the Liberals when they are promising to be a flawed clone of Labor with the added ball and chain of $70 billion plus in unfunded liabilities and the massive disadvantage of the lumpen Abbott as their leader.

  13. I think Kevin will do what he is entitled to do, call the election for when he is ready. I do believe he will move it as it was called on a Jewish holiday, a bad idea.

  14. That’s it staffordhall.

    Lot’s of typical hypocrisy going on from the opposition, Abbott in particular over this. Howard was often pressed on election dates from the media and retorted with he will give the date when he was good and ready and not a moment earlier.

    We know that the Coalition have always engaged in double standards but this opposition is particularly conspicuous at it.

  15. What a bitter disappointment Tony the Tiger is. Tone is not really a tiger is he? He is just a scared little cat. Tony is a cat. First he bottles it when he didn’t have the courage, the balls,the guts to ask the Indonesian President about his stopping the boats and now we have the cat not having the courage,the balls,the guts to debate the Prime Minister at the Press Club today. One has to seriously question whether they are Tone’s daughters because it seems blatantly obvious that the cat hasn’t got any balls. Such a bitter disappointment is Tone but he is a typical bully isn’t he. Can talk the talk but just hasn’t got the courage,the balls, the guts to walk the walk. He is just not up to it Australia. We cannot have a coward as our Prime Minister,ever.

  16. Consider this.

    49% of the 2PP can win the election or have a hung parliament.
    49.5% can definitely win the election. Howard once won with 49.5%.
    A swing of 1.8% to Labor wins them a 13 seat majority.

  17. ReachTEL poll. Who do you trust most to look after the interests of you and your family?

    Rudd 50.6%
    Abbott 41%
    Newman 8.4%

    All Labor has to do in the election campaign proper is hammer home Abbott’s links to Newman and how Abbott has stated Newman is doing the right thing and he will do the same. Abbott sunk.

  18. Kevin should go August 31. Get caucus on board with changes on 22nd then call it. The MSM will start to turn on Kevin as quick as they can

  19. Both Abbott & Turnbull, along with Hockey etc. are no longer credible contestants for the LNP or to run this country.
    I think that all of us now are so sick & tired of seeing politicians faces on TV the election can’t come soon enough.

  20. Both Abbott & Turnbull, along with Hockey etc. are no longer credible contestants for the LNP or to run this country.

    Why not?? They are better people than Rudd. Rudd was judged by his own party as not being good enough to be PM so they got rid of him. Judged as a failure by his own party.

    But it shows how low the ALP has sunk. They know for some reason he is popular with people and may even win an election. So the ALP puts winning the election ahead of the country.

    I have worked with people like Rudd. Very likable until you have to work with him. I remember telling people what someone was like I worked with . They never believed what I said until they had to work with him. And then they understood what i was saying.

  21. Migs, I know what will wipe the smile off your face-a signed pic of Liealot accompanied by the threat of a visit to your sick bed.

    On second thoughts, I don’t want you to have a relapse, Min would be cross & that would wipe the smile off my face. A cross Min is a force to be reckoned with.

    Saaq, I don’t think Liealot even makes it as a pussycat. A weevil?

    Liealot, Turnbull & Hockey better than Rudd? In what sense, Neil?

    I don’t disagree that he was very difficult to work with & Gillard was the one who smoothed things over, but in the end even she had to cave in to the inevitable.

    He certainly did his best to make Gillard’s path as difficult as possible, because he obviously never accepted his part in his own downfall and behaved like a spoiled child getting even.

    I think that he’s extremely good as a front man; he’s smooth, articulate & a very good communicator who ironically makes people feel relaxed & confortable. and to give him his due, he is pretty knowledgeable over a broad policy spectrum, unlike Abbott.

    However, he is inclined to break out into jargon which makes the punters’ eyes glaze over & the more ill mannered tend to mock him.

    Abbott won’t debate him on anything at all, because unlike Rudd he doesn’t even have the most basic grasp of any policies, even Health . Pretty alarming when you consider he was the Minister for Health.

    However, despite Rudd’s programmic specificity & termite issues, he is not tainted with the corruption, spite, hypocrisy, incompetence and sheer nastiness that Abbott is. Aligning himself with creatures like Jones, Hadley, Rupert & the IPA hasn’t endeared him to a majority of voters, imo.

    I maintain that if the ALP had not squibbed on explaining the reasons for removing Rudd, Gillard would still be PM leading a majority government into 14/9 with every prospect of a comfortable win for her second term, because it would have deprived both Rudd & the opposition of oxygen.

  22. The main game as far as I’m concerned is to stop the manipulation of our democracy by Gina, Rupert and their puppet. Tony….. I would have loved to see Julia do another term… and I think she would have, mm!! …. the closer we got to Sept. 14, the more our fellow Aussie’s would have gone online to look for info….. the more they would have looked, the more of a shoe-in ‘she’ would have been…. but alas, history had other idea’s 😉 …. either that or Julia has played an monumental wedge and thus has shown Tony up for the hollow straw-man rhetorical slogan-ist that he most definitly is.
    But, ultimately, it’s not what we think about Tony or Julia or even Kev… what we need to keep our eye on is what policies are good for Australians, as a whole…. and/or what policies are good for Gina, Rupert and their lackey Tony……when I cast my vote I will be thinking of my fellow Australians.. all 22 million of us….and not just those three.

  23. It does seem as the election is getting close we are getting more and more government advertising everywhere. It is starting to drive me nuts.

    Pretty sure that if Howard was in power there would be some comment from Labor supporters but since TEAM ALP is in charge nobody comments.

  24. I’ve tried to my finger on something missing from this blog since the polls turned.

    Certain right wingers gleefully bringing up the betting to shove in our faces. Wonder why they are posting the betting odds now?

    By the way to illustrate how on the nose Newman is and may very well be a one term government. 51% of soft voters stated they are less likely to vote for Abbott because of Newman.

    Abbott made a huge mistake hitching his support to Newman and saying he will do the same things.

  25. Poor old Newman. Labor hands the Coalition a trashed budget as usual.

    This is what Beattie/Bligh did to Queensland

    If Queensland is going to get its AAA credit rating back they may have to run 10 surplus budgets unlike the 6 needed by Costello to get the Commonwealths rating back. So don’t blame Newman, blame Labor.

    But Labor voters want services, welfare, this and that and whatever. Well if you want this and that and whatever, queensland will never get its credit rating back.

    Maybe it doesn’t matter. lets just eat drink and be merry and hand the debt to the next generation.

  26. Neil, how do you explain the current AAA ratings, none of which were awarded when there was a budget surplus?

    A budget surplus is a sign of monumental failure when unemployment is heading north & the economy is in recession. And isn’t this Newman’s 2nd budget? There is only one mob to blame & they’re laying waste to QLD at a rate of knots.

    Big shiny new hospital on the gold Coast which can’t be staffed, because Newman has sacked so many health workers. But it’s all good, he’s got a big fat pay rise, what could be wrong?

  27. “Neil, how do you explain the current AAA ratings, none of which were awarded when there was a budget surplus?”

    And you wonder why I have to repeat myself.

    We lost our AAA under Hawke in the late 1980’s. We got our AAA back in 2003. And it took 6 surplus budgets by Costello to get it back. The Commonwealth has had a AAA rating since 2003.

    Queensland lost its AAA under Beattie/Bligh in 2009 and Campbell Newman is trying to get it back.

    It shows the propaganda by Swan is working well for you to believe otherwise.

    “Queensland has joined Tasmaina as the only Australian states without a AAA credit rating, after rating agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded its standing.

    The news of a AA+ credit rating comes after Queensland Treasurer Andrew Fraser revealed the budget had slipped into a $1.573 billion deficit, just two months after the government predicted a modest surplus for the current financial year.”

  28. Neil, I repeat my question. How do you explain the AAA ratings under Swan without budget surpluses?

    And maybe you could explain why budget surpluses are either necessary or good for the economy.

  29. “Neil, I repeat my question. How do you explain the AAA ratings under Swan without budget surpluses?

    Are you trying to be funny?? We started in 2007 with no govt debt. It would take many years of Swan deficit budgets for us to lose our AAA rating. And lose it we will if Labor is re-elected.

    You people believe that we are sovereign in our currency, debt does not matter and we can just get out the printing presses and print more money.

    Well lets do it. Lets not have a $20B or $40B deficit lets got for a biggy like $80B and see what that does to the economy.

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