There’s something odd about the Nielson Poll

The results of the latest Nielson Poll are devastating for both Julia Gillard and Labor. In summary, the poll:

. . . shows Labor’s primary vote has dropped five points since December to 30 per cent, while the Coalition’s has risen four points to 47 per cent.

After preferences, the Coalition has a thumping election-winning lead of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.

The figures also reveal a dramatic reversal in who voters would prefer as prime minister.

Support for Mr Abbott has jumped nine points to 49 per cent, while Ms Gillard’s support has dropped five points to 45 per cent.

There’s something odd about this. Not the poll itself as the figures don’t lie, but it’s the reasons for the massive drop in support for the Government which I find odd.

To throw some light on this, let’s look at what has happened in politics since December to ascertain where this dissatisfaction may have been generated.

January 5: The Federal Government announced that arrangements were being made to ensure that natural disaster assistance was available to help communities in south eastern Tasmania recover from the devastating bushfires that had hit the region.

January 8: Tony Abbott puts himself on standby with his local fire brigade as NSW awaits the outbreak of new bushfires.

January 11: The International Monetary Fund reports that Australia’s most needlessly wasteful spending took place under the John Howard-led Coalition Government.

January 22: School Education Minister Peter Garrett announced that the Government is investing a further $29.6 million in a new agreement with the Western Australian Government to help boost literacy and numeracy results in the state’s schools.

January 23: The Prime Minister launched Australia’s first National Security Strategy.

January 25: Tony Abbott let’s us all know that he’s a ‘grog monster‘.

January 25: The Westpac Australia Day Report showed that more than two thirds of Australians (67 per cent) are positive about the national economy, while two thirds of those (66 per cent) expected this to continue.

January 24: Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs Richard Marles announced that the Government will provide $2 million to help the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) feed 575,000 refugees in Kenya that have fled war and drought in the region.

January 27: The LNP goes into a ‘mini election mode” with the release of its booklet titled Our plan: real solutions for all Australians. It does not provide any policy details, just plans.

January 29: Nova Peris was been officially pre-selected as Labor’s top Senate candidate for the Northern Territory.

January 29: The first Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payments (AGDRP) have been made available to QLD flood victims. Ten Local Govt Areas affected by flooding in Northern NSW also had access to joint-funded national disaster assistance.

January 30: The Prime Minister announced the election date; September 14.

January 31: To allay concerns about the limitation of freedom of speech, Attorney General Nicola Roxon wants the most controversial element of her proposed anti-discrimination laws to be stripped from the bill. Ms Roxon asked her department to draft alternative proposals to sections of the bill that raise freedom of speech concerns, including the removal of section 19(2)(b), which extends the definition of discrimination to include behaviour that might “offend”.

January 31: Members of the NSW fraud squad on Thursday executed an arrest warrant on Craig Thomson on behalf of the Victorian Fraud.

January 31: Tony Abbott addresses the National Press Club and announces/confirms his intentions that in Government the LNP the carbon tax will be gone, the mining tax will be gone, the boats will be stopped and the budget will be back in the black.

January 31: A leaked email from Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s inner circle has put pressure on him to come clean about planned budget savings.

February 1: Tony Abbott reiterated a pledge to take the $1.2 billion school kids’ bonus away from families. Introduced last year, the bonus provides eligible families with $410 a year for each child in primary school and $820 for each in high school. This would leave 1.3 million families worse off.

February 1: Tony Abbott has confirmed that the Liberals will cut vital tax breaks for Australia’s more than two million small business men and women if elected in September. Mr Abbott has pledged to scrap the instant asset tax write-off, which allows small businesses to claim a deduction for the full value of each new asset costing up to $6,500 after one year.

February 1: Tony Abbott refused to explain how he will balance the budget while again promising (if elected) to do whatever he can to scrap the ‘carbon tax’, even if it means another election if the Senate is uncooperative.

February 2: Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced a major Cabinet reshuffle following the resignations of two senior ministers; Attorney-General Nicola Roxon and Senate Leader Chris Evans are stepping down from their portfolios and will quit politics later this year.

February 5: The Australian Federal Police and the Australian Communications and Media Authority signed an agreement to help combat the flow of child abuse materials on the internet.

February 5: Australia recorded a seasonally-adjusted trade deficit of $427 million in December 2012, an 85 per cent improvement on the revised $2.8 billion November deficit.

February 5: The Government announced it is investing a further $6.8 million in a new agreement with the Tasmanian Government to help boost literacy and numeracy results in the state’s schools.

February 5: The RBA leaves interest rates on hold.

February 6: The federal government announced that it would upgrade satellite and wireless services for the 7 per cent of the nation’s population who live in regional and remote areas that will not get access to the national broadband network’s highest-speed “fibre to the home”. Communications and Broadband Minister Stephen Conroy said the upgrade would double the speeds of the NBN’s fixed wireless and satellite internet.

February 7: The Federal Government’s plan to restore the Murray-Darling Basin river system to health is on track after key funding laws were passed by the Senate. MPs approved securing an extra $1.77 billion to pump up to 450 billion litres of additional water back into the basin.

February 7: A story is leaked that Tony Abbott will take to the election a radical plan to reshape Australia by splitting it into different personal tax zones and forcibly shifting tens of thousands of jobs to the Top End. The secret draft economic policy document, entitled Vision 2030, also proposes to carve $800 million from the foreign aid budget to be diverted to a mega-project in northern Australia.

February 8: The average cost of a three-year fixed home loan has fallen to its lowest level in 23 years.

February 9: It is reported that more than 3.6 million people would face tax increases under a Tony Abbott-led government, thanks to his pledge to close off the low-income superannuation concession, which reduces to zero the normal 15 per cent rate applied to super contributions.

February 9: Tony Abbott vetoed his rival Malcolm Turnbull from replacing him on Channel Nine’s Today Show after Abbott dumped his regular spot.

February 9: The Opposition comes under fire for not releasing their costed election policies.

February 9: Treasurer Wayne Swan revealed the mining tax raised just $126 million during its first six months of operation.

February 10: Julia Gillard announced plans to extend Australia’s flexible work laws to mums and dads returning from parental leave. The workplace relations changes also include an extension of the right to request flexible and part time work for mothers returning from maternity leave and protection for workers from rostering changes.

February 10: Julia Gillard announced a deal that will see 150 refugees from Australia resettled in New Zealand each year.

February 10: Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop says if she were to become Foreign Minister, former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd would be considered for any role with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, citing that his talents and experience that could land him a diplomatic appointment under a Coalition Government.

February 12: Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Financial Services and Superannuation Bill Shorten announced that Australians who are bullied at work will be able to get help quickly with a focus on early intervention through the Fair Work Commission. The Government’s response supports measures to adopt a national definition of workplace bullying, to promote education and awareness of what constitutes workplace bullying and to lead the development of national training standards to improve responses to bullying complaints.

February 12: Tony Abbott tells colleagues that overseas travel will be ‘banned’ until after the election.“Be ready, be visible and be in Australia”.

February 13: Tony Abbott comes under attack for lying about how large the Public Service had grown since 2007. His number of 20,000 appears to be something ‘placed out there’ in order to get support for his plan to axe 17,000 Public Service jobs. The number is way off the mark. Since 2007 the number of people employed in the PS increased by a little over 13,000. I have been informed by the CPSU that since 2010 the increase has bee a mere 2,747. A big difference than the 20,000 as claimed by Tony Abbott.

February 14: Minister for School Education Peter Garrett announced that Students and teachers in 1700 schools will benefit from an extra $240 million in funding, aimed at boosting teaching standards, improving literacy and numeracy results and providing extra resources for disadvantaged schools.

February 14: Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is reportedly considering building as many as 100 dams across the country as part of a plan to prevent floods, fuel power stations and irrigate food bowls at a cost of $30 billion.

I don’t know what period of time the Neilson Poll was conducted, hence I’ve only included political news up to and including February 14. I’m prepared to accept too that I might have missed a number of announcements from both the major political parties during January and the first half of February. There have also been some major initiatives launched by the Government over the last few days, such as spending more than $70 million on three new centres to research cell therapy, autism, eye care in remote communities and workplace safety, and the $1 billion jobs plan. We’ll know by the next poll whether or not the voters warm to these.

Now, why do I find the poll odd? Well, apart from the Craig Thomson arrest there has been nothing (from the above) to encourage a giant swing against both the Prime Minister and her party. Quite the contrary. If we relied on nothing but press releases or policy announcements it is safe to say that Labor has had a better start to the year than the Opposition, who have offered or achieved close to nothing, apart from a healthy boost in the polls.

I would speculate that there have been two issues to factor in to these results. Firstly, the constant media hype of a Rudd challenge to Julia Gillard may be creating some uncertainty in the electorate. Secondly, and I find this one hard to accept, some people have such a low disregard for the Prime Minister that they’d vote for the LNP no matter what the consequences.

What’s your opinion?

182 comments on “There’s something odd about the Nielson Poll

  1. Ok, there’s a fundamental problem with polls which nobody ever talks about. Let’s do a quick poll. Who do you hope wins the AFL premiership? This poll is relatively meaningless in the rugby states, because they don’t really care and can change in a minute, but there is no way I’ll be hoping for a Carlton win whatever. The big question with the poll AT THIS STAGE is not who do you think you’ll vote for, but HOW SURE are you of your voting intention? The mistake that EVERYONE made in ’93 was splitting the undecided 50/50 instead of realising that there’d be a swing back to the Government.

  2. Migs, ask anyone away from those with an interest in politics, they all say one word. “debt”

    Somehow that has become embedded in many minds. Ask them what they mean, they do not have an answer. Just the PM is sending the country broke. I fear it is a word that many believe they know the meaning of.

    My other is sadly one I hope to be proven wrong, is that many cannot accept, no matter how good, a woman, that lives in sin, who is an atheist and has choose deliberately not to have children.

    I believe that younger women are not so much against her. Well, it would be hard for them to be so, as most lead similar lives.
    .
    It has little to do with the PM’s abilty. Some see her lifestyle as dishonest.

    How we overcome this, I have no idea.

    What I do know, it is not fair.

  3. And if the Mining Tax is doubled, and Labor start saying that it raised a quarter of a billion dollars in its first year, will the Liberals say we have to abolish it, because it’s not raising enough?

  4. I believe most polls are basically honest. I am not so sure that the numbers of polls we have now is healthy, or that they in themselves are helping to form public opinion. I am not too sure what they are actually measuring.

    If one has polls telling you something is true, could this lead to one distrusting their own feelings and beliefs.

    I for one, would love to see polls barred during the formal election campaign.

    I cannot see the need for them.

    Yes, believe polls can create public perceptions, that have no basis in truth.

    What they have done, is change the way politics is discussed in this nation. All media discussion seem to revolve around the lates poll.

    Politics has become a popularity contest, where context and policy mean nothing.

  5. You can whinge as much as you like, and skew the numbers anyway you want, the bottom line is you are supporting a thoroughly corrupt and dysfunctional Government and more and more Australians recognise this situation. Stop flogging a dead horse and start providing coherent and cogent critiques of the way Government should be conducted.

  6. Firstly, starting the year with that Macklin quote which due to the slow news day nature of a public holiday dominated the news and alienated single parents. Then the appointment of Nova Peris which, for a leader whose legitimacy was widely questioned, was viewed by the electorate as arrogance (and possibly a “second strike” – the sense that she “knifed” Rudd and now has “knifed” someone else, even though the facts were entirely otherwise). Then the election call. There’s also the broad sense in the community that costs are going up, it’s harder to buy a house, and the Government isn’t “doing anything”. (This dogged both Keating and Howard at their final elections too, it’s a common sentiment of people with little knowledge of politics but a strong sense that it’s not doing what it should do.) Note that apart from the Macklin one, I’m not endorsing the above sentiments, just reporting them as people have told me with a view to explaining why people are reacting in a way that puzzles those with a facts-based approach.

    It’s not so much facts as perceptions. I’ve copped a lot of this on doorknocks for WA state election candidates in recent days, so this isn’t just the “MSM”, this is what actual non-political types think and react to.

  7. I’m afraid Catching up has nailed it, unlike most here, and to be fair many on the other side, make it our job to be informed, many however, get all their news from soundbites and headlines and think that critical thinking is when your bitching about “my kitchen rules”. The one bit of hope I have is the landline issue. if, has has been reported, surveys are predominately taken by landline, then I would suggest there is a massive youth cohort that is slightly more likely to vote Labor than Conservative. Please let it be so!

  8. Curry, I’m curious…just how is the government “corrupt and dysfunctional?” The government has honored it’s agreement with the cross been hers to run a full term (stable), passed 400+ pieces of legislation with none rejected (successful), attained AAA credit rating from 3 leading credit agencies, negotiated the GFC with one of the strongest economies on earth (competent). Please explain…

  9. PhoneyTony Abbott is basically a fake trying to con Australia’s voters into imagining he is a good bloke. If elected, he would be worse than Campbell Newman or Ted Baillieu – he would cut public service jobs, pensions etc. Even his efforts to “fight” natural disasters were mostly staged PR displays for the media – he filled just 2 sandbags during the recent Queensland floods, while the cameras were filming. Wake up, Australia. The bloke is a dickhead and an A*hole. Not fit to lead the country, that’s for sure – just a try-hard wannabe in lycra budgie smugglers, size S.

  10. Lets all have a cuppa tea, a bex and a good lie down because the Polls are a sham as all fair minded people know. A little research has told me the following”
    NIELSEN POLL – Daily Telegraph
    GALAXY POLL – Daily Telegraph
    NEWS POLL – Murdoch owned as is the Daily Telegraph
    MORGAN POLL – Not sure who runs this Poll but it seems to be the only one that is biased.
    Before the last American election Murdoch stated that he would bring the Obama Government down as shown in all his Newspapers over there . The Opinion Polls were just a bad for Obama as they are here for JG. When are people going to wake up to the fact that Murdoch is trying to run things here, but he has come up against a Lady who will not bow to all his wishes. JG and the Government are putting Working people first and God help us if Abbott and his grubby mates get Government because Murdoch will be running the Country.

  11. I believe that Labor is screwed. The feelings of hate people hold against Julia Gillard are only being held off by the emotions of angst for Tony Abbott. What the Government needs to do and learn quickly, is how to speak succinctly instead of moaning on and on and on about nothing. It’s seriously pissing voters off.

  12. CU, the polls are only as good as the questions asked. This I found out in the 1st year of my studies. Questions that are asked will always be skewed to suite the viewpoint of the people requesting answers. In this case Neilsen Polls are run by who? Owned by who? Come on folks, don’t be fooled into thinking they matter at this stage of things, they don’t. They are just deflecting away from the lack of proper policies by the LNP.
    Julie Bishop wanting KRudd in her department of foreign affairs, that is a laugh. She fawns all over him every chance she gets and he appears to be lapping it up. (Maybe doing him a disservice here?)
    Migs, you are absolutely on the mark with this article. There is something very smelly in the state of Denmark IMHO.

  13. recalcitrantrick, I concur Cu has it plus there is not much point in being in denial, Labor is in strife. My belief is that unless you recognise that there is a problem, then you cannot start correcting that problem.

    To me what has been lacking on the Labor side of politics is someone to come out fighting on behalf of the PM. Every Prime Minister has had their attack dog, yet Gillard’s does not seem to exist. This has allowed Abbott to run with *his themes* of dishonest and corrupt mostly unchallenged, or at least unchallenged in the arena in which Abbott operates.

    From my own perspective, the confusion started when Gillard announced herself to be anti-gay marriage. People were expecting her, with her lifestyle choices of atheism and living in unwedded bliss to be far more liberal on this issue. Anti-marriage equality is supposed to be the realm of the ultra conservatives in most people’s minds.

  14. awombatsweb

    How about telling us exactly what the government isn’t speaking succinctly on and what it has been moaning on about nothing on?

    Another throw away single paragraph post offering nothing and actually moaning about nothing whilst not speaking succinctly about what the post is about.

  15. I find the poll odd at least

    Apart from the artificially generated Rudd challenge issue I live in a blue ribbon conservative seat

    So many people especially women detest Abbott and are having serious reservations about their ability to vote for him.

    Add to that the fact that Abbott has been almost completely hidden from view since his “Fireman Tony” Stunt

    There is certainly something odd happening that MSM is not questioning.

    Curiouser and curiouser

  16. I believe it is about two things. I believe we would have neither, if the PM was a male, these issues would just not arise. The PM in reality has not done anything, that male PMs have done before her.

    The first is personal prejudices of some. I do not believe anything can be done in this regard.

    The second is the public perception of this government and PM.

    Maybe if we recognise this as a problem, maybe we can turn it about.

    I also believe that Mr.Abbott will not have the clear run he expects in the next few months. That man has a rude awakening coming.

    I also believe there is no way Mr. Rudd will ever be brought back, If he believes this, he himself has big problems.

    I believe for the good of women, and the country, the PM needs to keep up the good fight.

    What gets me, is the MSM and the opposition always believe the PM does not have options. The woman has many. They see only one outcome, Rudd returned. Why would Labor do this, when they have such a depth of talent wit the party.

    Whether there are more that took the poisoned chalice as Ms.. Gillard did, I am not so sure.

    I am not so sure that the PM would not hand over to someone else, if she believed it was in the interest of Labor.

    To do so, would not detract from the wonderful record she already has of achievement.

    Australia has a habit of handing over poison chalices to women.

    Look what has happened to most of our female premiers. Given the job, when there is no hope of winning. The PM gained her job the same way. She has proven them wrong by being here three years later.

    The PM has already created her place in history. Many at this time, do not., see it that way.

    The choice will to be to stick it out, or to voluntary to someone else.

    She will do much for the plight of woman following in her footsteps f she sticks to the task, and wins through. Then women will be treated the same as men.

  17. I notice that “Curry” either doesn’t have an answer or is too busy waiting for Tony to send the answers to him (they’ll be in the same envelope as his costed policies, I’d say)……….

  18. “the bottom line is you are supporting a thoroughly corrupt and dysfunctional Government”. Ah, yet another utterly unfounded claim made by a dyed in the wool Abbott adorer. Tell you what, Curry, when this government starts using tax-payers money to defend family members from possible criminal prosecution (as occurred in the National Textiles affair), or sends us off to war on the basis of a lie, or loses more than a dozen MP’s & Ministers due to abuse of position. or deliberately turns a blind eye to the biggest bribery scandal in Australian history (as occurred with AWB), or guts funding to public health & education, whilst simultaneously handing out billions of dollars a year in Middle Class Welfare for private health & education, or runs up an advertising bill in the billions of dollars-then maybe you’d have a point. Funny, though, how people like you-Curry-had nothing bad to say about Howard during this time period…..even when he lied to the public about the Medicare Safety Net, Industrial Relations, fees for degrees & the GST.

  19. Ranga Power Abbott has such enormous office expenses, the most by a long shot of any Australian politician ever, that sending out tens of thousands of what to says at tax payers expense would be perfectly OK with him and his zombie trolls. They would be written by his brain trust of course, Abbott couldn’t grunt a what to say.

  20. Wow, a poll involving only about 1,000 people. When did these “research” types get so bloody lazy? Either interview a minimum of 2,500, or don’t bother reporting the so-called “results”. BTW, scaper, your beloved Abbott utterly dissed the whole “Northern Development” idea himself, dismissing it as just a :”discussion paper”. It probably sounds too much like it was written for him by Gina Reinhart.

  21. Abbott’s popular up +9 is clearly rogue. You we see a major turn around next Neilson poll & tonights newspoll will not mirror Neilson result with Abbott as preferred PM.

  22. I have a feeling, polls are feeding off one another. Experts have raised concerns along this line.

    How many Abbot supporters are among those supporting Rudd. A majority, I would suspect. If I was asked to choose between Abbott and Turnbull, it would be Turnbull. Only for polls. Though., I want him to stay there.

  23. Curry you made some weird comment about a dysfunctional Govt. You obviously haven’t a clue what the word ‘dysfunctional’ means or you are talking about your own bowel situation. You were invited to explain, so far decline. I invite you again, please explain how the Govt is dysfunctional?

  24. If this Curry idiot persists with the “dysfunctional government” slogan, I’ll be forced to post a long list of the dysfunctions of the Lieberals in government.

    Make my day, Curry.

  25. Peter Brent has stated on Twitter that a Rudd return has been declined by the caucus.

    And the wingnuts get it wrong for the umpteenth time.

    Nothing illustrate how wrong the right wingers are here than the amount of times they spruiked of the immediate end of Gillard up until this point. It may be an election that does end her political career but it will be a full term election the right kept saying we’d never reach and it will be an election led by Gillard for Labor, also something the right wingers kept saying would never occur.

    If they can’t get that correct and can’t elucidate why Abbott would be a good PM then why should they ever be given the slightest bit of credibility, especially when they have to lie, distort facts or be fact less to make their inane points.

  26. In the past 6 weeks, we’ve had Abbott allegedly misusing CFA equipment for a political stunt, becoming increasingly dicatatorial about who can talk to the media, whilst becoming increasingly unwilling to speak to the press himself….not to mention the leaks of some crazy uncosted policies that sound like they were written by Gina…..yet we’re meant to believe he is now preferred PM? On what grounds?

  27. Personally, I believe it is time we focused on the PM one hundred percent. Forget about Abbott altogether.

    We need to change that perception. Wasting time and energy on Abbott will only detract from the task.

    He will do a good enough job of bringing himself down.

  28. Also, I remember at this point in the 2001 & 2004 elections, Labor was a shoe-in to win. Pf course we know how things *really* turned out.

  29. Interesting conversation going on Twitter that seems to have its basis in some speaking out against the pollsters being told to tow the pollsters view and take what the say as gospel.

    People should express opinions about polling industry that are consistent with polling industry’s view? Are you ok?

    Interesting today has been some journos that write on public opinion give views on pollsters that’s completely contrary to industry’s views

  30. Catching up, strongly agreed.

    And whoever said Nielsen was News Ltd… it’s actually the one Fairfax-linked poll. Galaxy is Brisbane-based News Ltd and usually skews Lib, the Morgan face-to-face normally skews Labor, and none of them mean much of anything until the 5 week election campaign as they’re all asking a hypothetical question which people may or may not be well equipped to answer. Very few polls are actually biased or lopsided, it’s more to do with the questionees. The famous example is in WA where even final-day polls are often 5-7% out due to a laidback decide-on-the-day mentality among many WA voters. It doesn’t always skew pro-Lib either, as we saw for the year and a bit where Rudd Labor was on seemingly stratospheric, never-before-achieved heights of popularity which even if an election had been held then would never have been realised.

  31. Why is so hard to believe that Labor voters have finally had enough of Gillards version of Labor.
    It is what I hear everywhere.
    Have you no concept of cumulative damage?
    Self destruction?
    Despite the desperate cries above, as someone who has had to go Green,to find any signs of Labor, I can tell you that this Labor govt is emphatically heading for annihilation.
    PS ‘Mind changers’ /spin doctors need not apply/reply.
    Final countdown?
    Last straw?

  32. The science says *Labor will lose.
    History says Labor will lose.
    Grass roots Labor says Labor will lose.
    People inside Labor admit Labor will lose.
    et,etc

    *=Gillards Labor

    Wake up!
    The sky IS falling this time

  33. Billious Lividity

    What science?
    What history?
    Which grass roots?
    Which people inside Labor?
    What etceteras etceteras ?

    Another blow hard who sprouts off but doesn’t offer any lucidity.

  34. I wonder how many out there give the pollsters the answers they think they want to hear, or bogus answers just for the fun of it. There are so many now, that maybe they are losing their value.

    Have there been any recent studies done. I have not looked at any, since at Uni in the late 1980s. I learnt enough then, to know one should not put to much weigh on them.

    At the best they only indicate what people might do, answering hypothetical questions at a certain moment in time.

    We have examples of polls taken before and after debates, community cabinet meetings and things such as Q and A,

    The before and after polls already give a different result. In a matter of an hour os so, the numbers change.

    The way the polls are being used by the MSM is nothing are than a con.

    I did a telephone poll a few weeks ago. I believe it could have been torn out of the local Liberal office. The questions were not too bad. The way they were asked, definitely raise my suspicions. It became very apparent, by the tone of the interviewee voice, the answers I was giving was to her Especially so, when I qualified my answers. Many of the questions, one had to say yes, but the questions were ambiguous. It did not matter your view, the answer still ended up yes.

  35. “Why is so hard to believe that Labor voters have finally had enough of Gillards version of Labor.”

    Read what many have written. We agree that many do not like the PM. What we are questioning, is why that is the perception.

    We do not believe that the perception relates to the achievements of this duly legitimate elected according to the constitution minority government.

    Many here believe it has been a highly productive and stable government.

    It is being asked, if polls the way they are being used today, have any part in creating the perception that is abroad.

    We are questioning, what are they really counting. Some are finding a disconnect between perception and what the government has achieved.

    That Is why I, among others I believe, ask those who say the government is dysfunctional etc., to explain why. Maybe we have wrong. Maybe it is as bad as some think and say.

    No one has yet explained what they mean. No one has told us why Abbott will be better.

  36. More Excuses – you are not prepared to face the wipeout or change.
    Pollsters pride themselves with accuracy and from memory have done
    exceptionally well in the last 10-15years with Federal results.Dare I add the Bookies
    are very spot on with odds also.
    Face fact , Labor is sliding so fast downhill its out of control.
    Not just one bad poll but the last 5. Most damning poll in Lindsay (David Bradburry
    sitting member) ALP Primary 22% , swing against Labor 20%.
    Every Number available is bad, but getting worse.
    Qld would only return K Rudd, all others gone.
    The Federal Election is lost just in QLD , forget the devistation of NSW post ICAC.
    And you still make feeble Excuses, must be a Labor thing.
    It makes my old addidge ALP – Austalia Losers Party realistic.

  37. Want to have an inkling of what things would be like under Abbott. Have a look at the 4 Corners piece on the JSF and Howard’s fuck up over it. Howard was considered smart and astute, which I have no reason to dispute.

    Abbott on the other hand is nowhere near smart or astute and an aircraft that started at $40 million each and is now going to cost $150 million each in a bungle that will cost us $35 billion for 100 aircraft because Howard was conned will be small bikkies with Abbott’s ignorant stuff ups.

  38. Where were you Voyager when the polls were the other way and trending away from the opposition and Abbott was rock bottom and still going down.

    Yet somehow Abbott going into hiding and nothing else changing except for more policies from the government that will help Australians whilst the Coalition have promised to increase taxes and cut programs that help people the polls have supposedly done huge overnight changes.

    And out come the zombie trolls from under their rocks whenever a poll moves against the government and go into hiding when they don’t.

  39. While the polls look bad now it’s seven months out.
    My assessment:
    At this stage people have the luxury of allowing their preference to be a fancy. In the booth when it is real, there will be a lot of people who just won’t be able to put a tick next to his name.

    But the Labor Ace no one mentions is:
    Abbott doesn’t have it in him to win, it’s not in his character.
    If he did, he would have negotiated power in 2010.

    The closer he gets to a win the more he will not be able to contain himself. He’s just not that good.

  40. voyager, why do you not address the post for once.

    No one is saying the PM will win.

    That is why we have elections. The voters will make that decision on Sep 14.

  41. I have noticed that the most damaging anti-ALP responses could be due to the following 3 issues:
    1) Cuts to welfare payments to single parents, mostly women. Being marketed as very anti-women & bad for struggling families.
    2) Lack of revenue from mining tax showing that ALP have already committed the spendning but now dont have the revenue
    3) Rudd popping up here, there & everywhere & despite his denials at leadership, he media & the opposition are having a field day suggesting ALP is disunited.

    Greens MPs have happily promoted the Gov’s lack of compassion to families & single mums, criticised them endlessly over having no courage to fix mining tax.
    The Rudd issue is certainly dividing ALP supporters – you only have to see twitter to see how quickly people have come to attack each other Rudd vs Gillard. MSM & Opposition must be loving to see the ALP & its supporters attack each other.

    Anyway, thats my take.

  42. And where’s your outrage that the Coalition are going to increase taxes not just for ordinary Australians but for businesses as well? The only winners are a handful of the biggest companies.

    If Labor did a fraction of that you would be up in arms Voyager, but because your beloved Abbott is screwing Australians and Australia you are perfectly OK with it.

  43. Got it from another site. Would not be surprised if it went viral. By the way, has not shown up on the news or anywhere else that I know of. Someone at the MC must have leaked it.

    With the lady and Bradbury, I do not believe Abbott is going to find it easy in those western Sydney suburbs.

  44. Migs
    I see you have picked up on my comment from your last post “Stop the Abbott”

    [Followed by the usual msm rudd pre poll beatup with the results from the polls having been conducted in the usual safe lieberals constituents electorates we have abbort ahead on PPM.

    Do me a favour, what on earth has he done to warrant such a change around nothing, yes I know that when he is MIA he gets less of a drubbing.

    What has the PM done to warrant her slide, the same I smell manipulation once again (must get back on my anti paranoid pills asap).

    I am going to put some cash on Julia to win the election.]

    It would appear a number of fellow whisperers are wondering the same.
    Remember the Yes Prime Minister sketch on polls – it is all about how you phrase the question and as CU says the answer comes out exactly what the survey/poll result required. (now must take another of my anti paranoid pills).

  45. I suspect today’s Nielson is a tad Rogue in favour of Liberals. The Newspoll comes out tonight. I think two weeks ago Newspoll was also a tad Rogue towards Liberals. Essential has been very steady at 45/46 – 54/55 for months.
    http://essentialvision.com.au/essential-research
    I just think the voters don’t like Gillard and Swan, don’t like the Policies, Union affiliation or the way Labor have handled the economy.
    It definitely is not going to get better. MYEFO is a couple of months away and the budget will be much worse. The Asylum seekers are like a migraine that won;t go away for Gillard. The AWU scandal combined with Slipper and Craig ………
    I think what gets up voters nose the most is the endless spin to cover the fact that Gillard is not good at creating or delivering policy.

  46. Catch Up – truth and fact should give you a reason to exclude me from comment.
    How un-Australian can you get, sure to be lots more!
    As for Ms Dillards lies today – she doesnt care about polls just wants to Govern.
    That is so so false , why did she so stupidly set Election date of 14Sept.

  47. Yes the sky seems to be falling for the ALP (and for me as well – not that I am a member). While there are any number of reasons for that impending disaster some spring readily to mind. First the MRRT. It seems that the MRRT was ‘negotiated’ by ‘politicians’ (Gillard, Swan and Ferguson) without ‘expert and timely’ advice from highly qualified Treasury officials.

    It would seem that Swan et al actually believe they are esperts at driving the ‘economic bus’. He’s not. He is not up to the task. Besides it’s not his job. He is a politician whose task it is to ‘sell’ not ‘design’, particularly at the micro level. No treasurer (including whoever) has ever had the expertise to ‘crunch the numbers’ or recognise the wider implications. FGS. Imagine a ‘health minister’ deciding whether patients need particular operations. Or an ‘infrastructure minister deciding on a bridge design. Or a sports minister deciding on how to train an athlete. Or … take your pick. Put simply, it’s not the role of Ministers to be experts and they should never try. They usually come out looking ridiculous.

    While public servants have expertise in certain areas, that expertise can’t compete with that by ‘practioners’ at the ‘coalface’. That ‘truism’ brings into debate education policies over the last 2 decades or so. While some elements, like the National Curriculum and infrastructure developments under the BER, are outstanding, broader policy directions are a ‘political’ and ‘practical’ disaster.

    Who in their right mind would go down the US track with an emphasis on testing? Yet we have. As though ‘constant weighing of the pig will make it fatter’. It won’t. For the highest educational achievements go the Finland which has no national (or district or whatever) testing (only class based testing designed by an individual teacher to determine where each child is at and what might be done. They trust their teachers, and pay them exceptionally well. One could go on.

    Shakes head …

  48. Mmmm I think she lost the single parent vote when she cut parenting payments. That’s a whole lot of people really struggling now to feed their kids You want to upset people, start hurting their kids. Ultimately it is them who will be missing out and the parents know it. Yeah the parents can go without means so that their kids eat properly but that’s only going to stretch a very small budget so far. Very bad call on behalf of the Labor government, they certainly lost my vote by doing this. Absolutely. I thought they maintained certain values…wrong. I think there are a lot of people still in shock, lying awake at night trying to work out how they are actually going to make it through, long term. BTW 68% of single parents were already working or studying part time, bad luck eh, they now lose 40c for EVERY dollar earnt over $62 a fortnight, can you imagine? OUCH

  49. Media run by murdock is a backer of tony abbott thats why they dont respond to your email when you say they are biased the polls are run by media put two and two together and it not hard to see media is only putting up what they want you to read tony abbott wont win the next election julia gillard will not win the next election the media have already won the battle by putting selective storys up in support of liberal wheres media about the slipper case the judge ruled the liberal were trying to bring down the govt bur the media stayed silent the media is a disgrace and needs to be looked into

  50. @Catching up
    February 18, 2013 @ 9:10 pm
    OMG
    If you actually LOOK at EVERYTHING Gillard has done, good and bad, the answer will stare you in the face.

    The reason Labor apologists cannot see this is simply because they DON”T frikking want to.
    Do an honest appraisal of Labors performance under Gillard.
    Look at her own personal character vacuum.Tell us what she stands for,believes in, goes into bat for.It is not workers, not the battlers, so what is it.
    Where are her impassioned pleas, her joyful visions?Find the answers for yourself if you dare.I sense you won’t even try.
    Stop looking at Abbotts/coalition faults for a a nano second.
    This place would be a great place to flog new clothes for emperors.

  51. Kate said:

    You want to upset people, start hurting their kids

    Indeed! Stupid and morally wrong as well as being politically dumb.

    And then you say:

    certainly lost my vote by doing this

    Do you thing that the LNP will overturn that decision? They won’t and given their promise to cut ‘dependency’ they will probably cut further.

    While I understand your anger (and mine) and your desire to ‘punish’ and seek revenge, do you realise you be ‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’?

    But you won’t be alone. More’s the pity.

  52. The only thing I can think of is blow back from the ICAC enquiry. However, this doesn’t explain the fall in Gillard’s personal approval rating. If these polls are accurate, I can only conclude that the majority of Australians are insane.

  53. Does Billious Lividity vote? Further evidence that democracy has plenty of imperfections? And the education system has plenty to answer for. The evidence abounds. LOL.

  54. I reckon that when they publish these polls, they should be publishing the questions that were asked as well. It’s not that hard to engineer a survey to make it give you the answer you want. They should also be publishing the data collection dates as well. Who controls the Nielson Poll? If it’s anything to do with the mainstream media, then just look to who’s the boss and you’ll get your answer. I really don’t have much confidence in these things, I believe that the poll results themselves can influence people’s opinions.

    Shamaroo, Richmond NSW

  55. Just for the record I have not been affected by the cuts to parenting payments. But I tell you what, I’ve heard some terrible stories about families who have been. I know that my son will, in time, be mixing with kids from families that have.

    Who looks after the 8yr old during the school holidays, curriculum days, sick days, teacher strike days? If there is no money for childcare then the children are left unsupervised whilst their parents are at work ~ full time. Where do you place your 12,13,14,15 year old during the holidays whilst you are working?

    Honestly, the long term impact of these cuts is going to cost more than the $$ they save. I’m thinking in terms of my situation ~ I don’t really want my son mixing with kids who’ve been unsupervised, who maybe don’t have the boundaries that my son does, who haven’t had a parent there to guide them and so on. I’m also thinking in terms of our greater society. Making single parents work full time and thus leaving their children unsupervised is not a good move. Nup, not good.

    Children rely on their parents to provide the opportunities whereby they can realise their potential, what they enjoy, what skills they might have. Not many single parents going to be able to provide these sorts of opportunities anymore. These kids who are going to miss out are possibly going to be bored, frustrated, angry even.

    Labor say that they have cut the payments in an effort to ‘encourage’ single parents back to work. As I said before 68% of them were already working or studying part time so that they could get better jobs. This is ridiculous, they are not in a better position to find jobs now, they are living under the poverty line. Where does the money for petrol come from so that you can get to the interviews and so on and on and on and on….

    And how many women now will stay with their children in abusive relationships because they fear a life of poverty. Not much of a choice is it, live with abuse or live in poverty. What would you choose?

    Aghh not good policy not good for the country.

  56. You just don’t get it do you? When one cuts through all he crap written above, gillard’s lousy ratings reflect a greater change. The lie of a climate consensus is but one small part but so much of the worst government in Australia’s history has been built around it. Today that consensus is in tatters and so is all the bullshit policy that has been built around it.

    “It is becoming clear that not only do many scientists dispute the asserted global warming crisis, but these skeptical scientists may indeed form a scientific consensus.

    Don’t look now, but maybe a scientific consensus exists concerning global warming after all. Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem.”

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-finds-majority-of-scientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/

    Backed the wrong horse did the giddard!

  57. CU

    “Many here believe it has been a highly productive and stable government”

    Problem is there are not many here at all!

    “Some are finding a disconnect between perception and what the government has achieved”

    Only the deluded…the majority now agree that giddard has achieved SFA!

  58. Migs, a strange result indeed.

    Why would voters hand government to a man and the party he leads knowing that he fully intends to kick them in the goolies? Are people really as stupid as that? Yes, yes we’ve seen ample evidence on this site that most Liars supporters are loonies.

    And I find it hard to believe that voters in Qld who are being subjected to a trial run of an Abbottochracy could possibly be keen to experience the real deal. Ditto Victorians.

    I do agree as pointed out above, that a lot of people have been spooked by the spectre of the debt as spruiked by Eleventy Joe Hockey and the rest of the economic illiterates in the Liars Party as being a millstone around the necks of future generations, whose salaries will be garnished to pay it off.

    Although government debt can’t be compared to household debt, I think it can still be explained in terms of the ability to repay it and as a percentage of their “GDP” as a way of putting this government’s debt into perspective.

    People borrow enormous sums of money to purchase a house, but although it is a large amount, it is generally well within their means to repay even though it may represent up to 600% of their GDP (income).

    By comparison, the government is only in hock for around 10% of GDP. Certainly the debt is in the billions but with an economy in the trillions, the government is in a better position to discharge its debt than the average mortgagor.

    The Liars frighten people with figures like $300bn, while intentionally misleading them with the facts wrt the economy and its ability to repay the debt.

    If people realised that their debt represents a far bigger chunk of their income than does government debt, they may not find it quite so troublesome.

    .

  59. And just to show how out of touch is taxing carbon dioxide…

    Please join the fun, exciting, life-affirming, environment benefiting, life-creating campaign for carbon dioxide!

    The Carbon Positive Campaign!

    “This will bring the cognitive dissonance of the alarmists right to their face, and they may have mental breakdowns at the message”

    http://climateofsophistry.com/2013/02/12/carbon-positive-campaign/

    Bob Brown knew when to quit while the going was good!

  60. “The Liars frighten people with figures like $300bn, while intentionally misleading them with the facts wrt the economy and its ability to repay the debt.”

    Go on make my night and explain ability to repay when all that is happening is more debt and less revenue…deluded!

  61. Lets be very clear. The legislation that asks parents to return to work when the child turns eight was bough in by Mr. Howard in 2006. There was a grandfather clause that allowed women already on the benefits to remain until the child turned 16 or until I believe 2016.

    What the PM has done, is bring these into live, with those who found themselves on benefits since 2006.

    Wonder how these women, with eight year olds, force back to work, while the next door neighbour, on similar benefits, older children sits at home on her backside.

    I believe there are many benefits available that allow them training during this time, that leads to a worthwhile jobs,

    Women, who are unable to work for other reasons will be looked after. Some have gone believe it or not onto the old age pension. Some have been awarded carers pensions. Would not surprise me, id some are entitled to a disability pension. There is the option to work or study.

    Now the numbers are said to be between 60 and 80 thousand. What we have not been told, is how many are on full or part time pensions, Wh have not bee told what the average age of the children affected.

    I have no problem with the action taken, as there should be one rule for all.

    What I am more concerned about, that these women are getting the assistance and help to get back to work.

    I say this, as a old woman, that spent time on benefits.with four young children

    i am forever grateful for the opportunity I was given to go to Uni at forty. Glad that it allowed me to work in fullfilling jobs, with a decent income.

    That life was much better for my children. Rearing children on pensions is not the best way to go.

    I would rather see the money sapent in support and training, than encouraging women to stay home.

    I worked for years as a District Officer with Docs in Chtld Protection. Not many of my clients were children of working mothers. Most. I am sad to say, were those on the Supporting Parent Benefit.

    Funny, when I worked, my himes always seemed to be full of childrenn, whose mothers did NOT work. made it much harder for me.

    Befor I get attacked, I am not saying all mothers that stay home are bad. What I am saying whether a mother works or stays home, does not indictate whether she is good or not.

    Does anyonje really believe that Abbott will changed this siotuation. I believe it would have been one of the first things to go on his list. he is already spputing, tightening up, working for the dole.

    This is not a clever thing to hate the PM for.

  62. Oh for sure, Abbott will be worse, no doubt in my mind. The problem I have with the cuts to single parent payments is that the large majority of these parents were already working albeit part time. Now they are being forced to work full time. Big difference and has a huge impact on their families.

    Whilst not affected personally, I am involved in the campaigning to see these changes reinstated, so I’m hearing a lot of the stories of what is actually happening. Lots of mums having to give up their studies, simply because they can no longer afford it. The Jet payments they had that helped with child care have been cut and so on.

    I totally agree that single parents, all parents benefit from getting out of the house and doing something to contribute to our greater society whatever that may be. On the other hand there has been a lot of talk about ‘choice’ and ‘flexibility’ recently with the new ‘modern families’ focus. Well there is no choice or flexibility for single parents. In order to keep meals on the table and a roof over their heads they are now being forced to work full time, which of course means kids are being left alone.

  63. Has anyone noticed that tree gives the same replies to evey post, no matter the topic. Same insults too.

    Like Abbott, he a;ways manages to get the words, “carbon tax” in.

    He makes me feel extra special and successful. That is indeed kind of him.

  64. Yes, mostly for being a unmarried woman, living in sin and an atheist to boot.

    It could not be for lack of ability and guts. That is something she is well endowed in.

  65. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) survey was limited to television weather forecasters who are also meteorologists. A prior survey of all television weather forecasters–including ones without meteorological training–produced a heavy percentage of skeptics.

    James Taylor JD (I didn’t pass the bar). So let me get this right Treeman. Your argument is that because a percentage of television weathermen in the US in a survey run by a Neocon astroturfing organisation of climate deniers, which in fact is “not” a published, peer reviewed scientific paper, but a survey run by the organisation. The government is wrong.
    You are seriously a mentally deficient fact desert.

    It would seem Curry is all gravy and no meat, like most of the trolls in here.

  66. Kate, I do hope the stories, like many we read about this government are not true.

    I suspect more are being forced from their studies by the action taken by O’Farrell and his cuts to TAFE.

    Fathers also have a duty to contribute to their children.

    Still no one has raised any concerns about those who have had to return to work, those who went to the benefit after 2006.

  67. Has anyone noticed that tree gives the same replies to evey post, no matter the topic. Same insults too.

    Like Abbott, he a;ways manages to get the words, “carbon tax” in.

    I pinged him earlier today for being an unoriginal troll. Goes with the RW mindset, apparently.

  68. Yeah I think social media has played a big role in current campaign for single parents. We’ve come a long way, we have a voice, we will not be silenced. :0) BTW prior to this policy thought Julia Gillard MP was doing a pretty good job of it under very trying circumstances. She’s a pretty remarkable woman. Kudos to her.

  69. @Col and LeeJ.
    Nice work.Way to rally the swinging voters and disillusioned voters to your futile cause.
    Can either of you address any of the challenges I presented in identifying Gillards visions aspirations for the country she will never lead after September?

    I am challenging Gillards defenders to offer up a reason why those who have her pegged as toxic, would turn around.
    The MSDS for her toxicity is readily available if you can read.

  70. Cuppa the tree troll fancies himself as a crusader with a mentor and everything. Like so many tiny minds in the blogashere who lead l boring lives, he puffs his chest in the blogashere to make himself feel important., Yet remarkably, he never blogs himself, just recycles any neocon garbage he can cut and paste. This bloke has never had an original thought in his life. He bullshits about everything. His last posts on the NBN pegged him as a regurgitating goose with a head full of pate’,

  71. Some responses, so i feel obligated to respond, at least in the deontoligical sense as opposed to the teleological point of view. LOL.

    Mack said:

    Coming from the janitor imperfect. Let the undereducated eat cake!

    Hilarious! Here is a classic ‘economic refugee’ who couldn’t make it in at least one State, (in the sense that his Walter Mitty ambitions/delusions were abandoned, including the delusion that he would become a ‘lobbyist’), took a desperate drive across the nation to seek employment. Doing ‘deals’ here there and everywhere. But not any evidence of ‘success’.

    BTW, I’ve been to Perth on any number of occasions and I always flew ‘business class’, except for the two times I was driving around Australia rather leisurely I might add.

    Kate said:

    I’ll be voting Greens

    Welcome to the club. But the real question is who will get your second preference?

  72. Billious all reformist governments are destroyed by Liberals, where else would they get their vision if not for the coat tails of the great Labor reformists?. The aspirant would be government model themselves on the perpetuated lie of Howardism. All the rah of surplus economics fueled by big fire sales and fond memories of Australia’s worst treasurer with an eybrow waxing hold no water when there is nothing left to sell but “dammed” holes disused as policy.Abbott has not jumped 9 points in two months, its just not possible. So if you want to climb that greasy pole good luck to you.

  73. Kate if you are considering Green as Col so rightly pointed out, make sure you look where your preference lands as that is where your vote will register anything that resembles significance. The Greens have regrettably failed as pseudo democrats due to their dogged lack of compromise.

  74. …… the polls don’t correllate CC into Tones future… sad but true…… Tony and his boss’ views along with the compliant media, and remember he has associated himself with “climate change is crap”, have not even considered the reallity of CC in ‘their grand plan’ or ‘thier polls’….. I predict a bite on bum situ coming up for Tones and his Cult ….. sad but true 😦 ….. by Sept. 14th 2013 the Arctic Summer Melt Season will be in full swing……( and did someone say perma-not-frost).. a melting argument.. is a RW argument; a.k.a. an denialist argument….. sadly true 😦 …… the obvious will become more obvious to the voting public, i.e. CC is not CRAP….. LNP policy is in a melt-down akin to the Arctic… it just ain’t hold’n water….. sad but true 😦 …. the LNP will rue the day they took thier ‘stance’… and that is not ‘eva’ gunna be reflected in ‘da polls’…. Tones wants to be a small target… but how is he gunna weather the weather coming his (and our) way…… sad but true 😦
    (:)

  75. Rudd says he’s in deep freeze, but his supporters think he can be unfrozen.

    A back bench revolt is imminent and I hope they have enough revolutionary zeal to pick Gary Gray as PM.

  76. El Gordo you are right but I would quickly add ‘it is the whole Labor parliamentry
    team has been in the deep freeze for a long time’
    They cannot thaw out before 14Sept. Unfortunately Australian Voters have
    to put up with this glacial moraine till then and it is unrealistically supported by
    the bulk of CW’s. Till you all can run a critical eye over the Labor mess it
    will just multiply, fester and burst on 14Sept 2013.

  77. Are you ever going to add anything to a discussion el gordo or are you just going to continue your gormless trolling.

    Rudd is not going to challenge and after his last half hearted effort never was. On the news bulletins this morning.

    And what is so typical of the media now days the blame for Rudd not challenging is Rudd’s fault apparently. The media did this the last few times they flagged a Rudd challenge that never eventuated, blamed Rudd for a non-challenge that was purely a media construct, just as this one has been, and all to help Abbott who cannot honestly win on merit and credibility so needs the media to run false and misleading campaigns on his behalf.

    In the meantime the disquiet in the Abbott camp over Abbott’s flakiness and dictatorial style is overlooked whilst in the NT a real challenge to a conservative leader is taking place right now.

  78. Rudd won’t come out of hibernation unless a majority of caucus force him… having power ‘thrust upon’ is legitimate practice.

    Still, even with Rudd at the helm they won’t win unless he changes policy platform and installs a front bench with no resemblance to the present government.

    Crean, Ferguson and Smith can stay.

  79. Won’t worry Abbott too much, his damage on behalf of his puppet masters will have been done and he will live high on the hog in being the most expensive ex-PM ever in spending that will make Howard’s current record extravagance as an ex-PM look like small change.

    John Howard:

    The biggest-taxing PM in history.

    The biggest-spending PM in history.

    The most wasteful PM in history.

    The most expensive living ex-PM to maintain on the public purse.

    2011 http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/national/national/general/taxpayers-fund-500000-for-expms/2370313.aspx?storypage=0

    2010 http://www.theage.com.au/national/howard-leads-the-pack-in-formerpm-payouts-20100625-z9t1.html?from=age_sb

    2009 http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25869725-421,00.html

    2008 http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/ex-prime-ministers-john-howard-malcolm-fraser-most-expensive-travel/story-e6freuzr-1111117924395

    Stop the waste. STOP THE LIBERALS.

  80. Here’s this wanker/denier Treason, still gouging the last remnants of mud from his ears from the last taste of “funny weather” (what DID happen to that “Lamb, lamb, lamb” bbq?) to be straight back on the flat-bottomed barge heading to the edge of the falls AGAIN singing the “same old sweet song” from the same old song-book……or is it a joke book?…..he’s lost so much by howling denial into the teeth of the storms that he is like the veritable toothless harpy mixing his antonyms and synonyms and analogies and apologies and apostrophies together to form some thick, geletinous concoction that when drunk gives him enormous powers of denial delusion……unfortunately, it has a side effect..: He can’t look in any mirror without seeing a liar!

    …and Treason…: “you know it’s true”.

  81. How much taxpayers money has Tony Abbott spent just travelling around Australia, say over the last 14 months?????.

  82. I often read but don’t contribute, but I have to chime in with Kate here. Single parents don’t have many resources, and they often don’t have the time to research, let alone lobby. We (for I am one) are hurting, and no amount of reasoning is helping. Yes, we know about the 2006 changes. It doesn’t matter, we’re hurting. While some know that we will be worse off under a coaltion government, most don’t. They’re just hurting. And the bile that is out there for this Gillard-led government feeds the cycle of hurt.
    Mothers and Fathers who stayed to raise the children, often who had work or study and a system that allowed them to provide the support their children need are hurting. The fear and worry is frankly overwhelming, the depression amongst the social media groups is numbing.
    I want to be clear, but still concise, since I am aware this issue is hijacking a different issue, but it’s important that you who are defending this policy be aware there is nothing benign about it.
    Study is no longer an option if you are on the Newstart payment. The jobsearch requirements are exactly the same as they were on the Parenting Payment, the only change is loss of money and concessions. There are no new programs, plans or job creation strategies. There are no child care places in many areas, in some areas there never were – 8-16 year olds are a lot harder to manage, and make no mistake, they are and will be left unsupervised. The jobs these parents might be able to find will be casual, low-paying and at inconvenient hours. Childcare will be needed but will not be within the means. How many couples with children do you know who say the second income only covers childcare? Right, well in this case we have no second income.
    And those who were already earning money and working are forced onto a tougher income test – Newstart is not an income support payment and nor should it be. But the upshot is that where single parents could do the low-paying jobs and rely on the government to meet a baseline (and still under the poverty line) subsistence, they MUST now seek full-time work, it is the only way they can survive.
    I might add at this point that I have been and still am a staunch supporter of the Gillard government, I admire the job she is doing and the legislation that’s been handled during her term. But – no doubt because I am living it, this legislation seems harsh and arbitrary, as if it were part of someone else’s unfinished agenda – “oh, don’t forget to fix that PPS glitch before we go”.
    Sorry for the tl;dnr, but I feel it’s important that people stop assuming they know what that policy is and what the outcomes will be. It will not and cannot create jobs or advance the education opf the parents it affects. It will simply result in children left home alone by parents who never wanted that for them, and who had proved it by being the ones who stayed.
    There are people like me, lifelong Labor voters, who thought one thing we could rely on from Labor was the provision of welfare as part of a first-world ethos. As this election campaign begins, I am finding myself looking for some other option. Did Labor casually disenfranchise a soft target, the much-maligned single parent, to appease an increasingly right-oriented electorate?
    The hard reality of voting for a party which has demonstrably deserted at least one of the core values I believed in all my life, just because we have an entrenched two-party system, seems very hard indeed. I will do what I must, because I cannot vote LNP – ironically, out of affection for a wider (working) electorate that has clearly abandoned me. I wish, not for the first time this week, I had options.

  83. The complaints about the Single Parent payments illustrate the level of misinformation out there.
    Single parents have been switched to Newstart when the youngest child turned 8 since 2006. It came in under the Howard government.

    Some who were already receiving the payment before 2006 were allowed to continue on the Single Parent rate until the youngest child turned 16. The recent change made it uniform, so now everyone switches at 8.

    This was voted in by both major parties. Yet Julia Gillard is apparently being held solely responsible. It will affect some, not all recipients of Single Parent payments.

    More people will benefit from the raising of the tax-free threshold, which Tony Abbott would remove. Coupled with the Schoolkids Bonus which he will also remove, low income or no-income families would be far worse off.

    Julia Gillard did answer ‘those (unspecifiied) questions’ years ago – questions asked by people in a far better position to know what they were talking about than someone using smear to try to make a completely illogical statement.

  84. Mally’s Girl has taken the time to explain why she is unhappy with the party she voted for.

    ‘Did Labor casually disenfranchise a soft target, the much-maligned single parent, to appease an increasingly right-oriented electorate?’

    It does appear so, but it may simply be that Labor is a captive of the Greens and they don’t care about ordinary people, only high ideals of a dubious nature.

  85. Hey Crowey I have been waiting for someone to bring up Abbotts expenses. He did a nine day bike ride and guess what, he claimed the m oney for this 9 day bike ride as Government business. He launched his book and claimed expenses travelling interstate, if memory serves me right, to Victoria, West Australia and Queensland. I thinlk he trvelled twice to Victoria, once to negotiate with a Book retailer. Why hasn’t the MSM got hold of this reported it to the people. Surely The Treasury knows about these expenses and the question has to be asked what have they done about it.

  86. Mally’s Girl, I do sympathise, but what Jeremy says is true, and what you said yourself about being worse off under the LNP is also true.

    The thing is that most single parents are young and healthy and are able to work, even though it may not be ideal from their point of view, for their kids, or what they want to do, but spare a thought for those stuck on a pension, both young and old who have no options for work and have to try to live at a subsistence level.

    The other point is that it is not ideal for children to grow up with a welfare mentality, where they believe that the world owes them a living, as they see one or both parents living on welfare, And I have seen many instances of the consequences of this attitude, both personally and regularly on the news.

    Cheers 🙂

  87. As much as I hate to say it, a leadership change might be Labor’s only option (and it won’t be Rudd). My reasoning being that it is too little and too late to change public perceptions of Julia Gillard. And as per Cu, We agree that many do not like the PM. What we are questioning, is why that is the perception. To me the answer lies in the fact that Gillard received wrong advice in the first place. Rudd had started on this road – to try to win over the conservative voters by “out-conservating” the conservatives..if the conservatives wanted to “come down hard on” X group of people or that the conservatives believed that there was little to be gained in “pandering” to things such as climate change, then Labor either likewise “came down hard on” or hid their achievements. The conservatives and Alan Jones listener types were calling the agenda.

    However, having said that how do you defeat things which people want to hear? Like it or not the media aims for shock value, for the titillation and a female prime minister (who is neither old nor bug ugly) was ripe for a smear campaign. Ask any woman, how do you counter sexual harassment in the workplace, how do you counter the secret whispers of the office gossips? You cannot. A good woman’s name is quickly turned to mud. You will notice that the worst of the trolls all manage to throw in a sexual innuendo when attacking the PM.

    Abbott once bleated “unfair” that Gillard is a woman, that he was at a disadvantage because he couldn’t attack her on the same level. How right he was. Abbott and his backers did not attack her on the same level, but instead they denigrated her as a woman.

  88. And the bile that is out there for this Gillard-led government feeds the cycle of hurt.

    Exactly.

    Truth be damned.

  89. but instead they denigrated her as a woman.

    And you still think that her unpopularity is due to policy, or even political decisions.

    No, it because of a constant, unremitting campaign of lies and deception fostered onto us by both the opposition and the media working as a team.

    See the ‘journalists’ get smacked down by Julie Owens at https://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2013/02/18/theres-something-odd-about-the-nielson-poll/#comment-137344

    No, you wouldn’t, unless you read a blog like this. I actually heard it referred to on news radio, and it was reported along the lines of as ‘Labor pollies bitching about the media’. FFS

    And it didn’t change a thing, even at that presser. The journos didn’t think on their feet (if they even can) and modify their line of questioning to suit this change of events. No, it was only ever all about ‘instability’ and ‘chaos’, who cares the real reason why the ministers were there. In the journos eyes, they were only there so they could play their leadershit game.

    And it is only going to get worst. Even after ‘the ides’ have passed, it will remain. And somehow, it will all be Gillards fault.

    It’s just another poll, get over it.

  90. Tom and,

    And you still think that her unpopularity is due to policy, or even political decisions.

    Rather the selling of that policy. When I first saw Migs’ list the first thing which came to mind was “I didn’t know that”..next thought was that if someone such as myself was not aware of Labor’s achievements, then how could it be expected that Mr. and Ms. Average know.

    To my way of thinking Gillard’s people have been missing in action, and this has allowed Abbott to run with the delusion that this is an “incompetent/dysfunctional” government as he has had no one to contradict him. We have had a few people such as Shorten say something controversial and this has received headlines. Unfortunately that’s the game these days as far as the msm goes – it has to be a headline grabber.

    I am still extremely hopeful that once Abbott’s policies or lack thereof are scrutinised, and the man himself scrutinised that people will ask themselves, Do we really want this?

  91. Min,the main reasons that the ALP cannot get the message out is in small part their own fault, but mainly due to the fact that even when there are positive messages to broadcast the MSM manage to put a negative spin on it, and are continually giving Abbott free reign.

    But as I said before, a week is a long time in politics, and seven months is an eternity to try and control Abbotts mouth and his brain (?).

    The purpose of these polls is to hammer home the idea that Abbott is a winner, and that Gillard is a loser, to try to force ALP voters to question there leadership, and make the swingers think that they should just back the winner.

    It’s all crap, these polls mean zero unless we all get spooked by them.

    Let the rabid right have their fun, but they won’t be smiling when they lose 😀

    What Ricky said is dead right 😀

    Cheers 🙂 😀

  92. Cuppa @9.55am..and where are the screaming headlines proclaiming the end of life as we know it? Imagine if the government did similar, we could expect endless rhetoric which would include words such as betrayal, incensed, damaging and detrimental..to be immediately followed by (yet more) leadership speculation…of course..

  93. TS, I have indeed been fighting that fight for several years. One need look no further than the journalistic techniques used (I know that I’ve mentioned this numerous times in the past, but perhaps it’s worth repeating). The Rule is: the headline – the photo – the first paragraph – the concluding paragraph. This is in order of importance. Therefore, irrespective of the text of the article, look at those aspects and you will find:

    1. Highly charged negative rhetoric in the headline

    2. The worst possible photo of Gillard or a photo not of Gillard but of a happy, smiling Tony Abbott.

    3. Inflammatory statements by the author in the 1st few sentences which often has absolutely zilch to do with the content of the article. It is only around the 3rd of 4th paragraph that you will find a positive statement about the government or “Julia Gillard says……”.

    This is a deliberate journalistic technique. The newspaper has indeed publicised the achievement but has done so in such a visually and verbally conflicting way that it deliberately sends an opposite message.

  94. To my way of thinking Gillard’s people have been missing in action

    Unfortunately Min, they are not missing, they are simply ignored by the journos, in much the same way as the two ladies were ignored in the youtube CU put up.

    And even when it is acknowledged, as news radio did, it is misrepresented in such a way as it would probably best if they were ignored.

    I really thought the MP’s were having a cry about it, but the video shows otherwise.

    Case in point, apparently, hunt got his ass handed to him by Tanya P last night on QA when he tried to claim that emissions have increased since the Carbon Tax. Nothing today about another lie from hunt, put right by his opposite on national television. You can just picture the outrage had the roles been reversed.

  95. Mgs, I have been forced to face an inconvenient fact., This site does not belong to you, but to tree and co.

    They have taken over.

    It does not make a pretty sight.

    Sorry.

    They, with their inane and repeated, senseless comments, derail every post, here and at the new site.

  96. The Newman government is making matters worse, by desecrating our hospitals with massive sacking throughout, then blaming the Federal Government for cutting billions of dollars from the health system.

  97. ………………….In a speech to be delivered at the Australian Workers Union (AWU) national conference later today, Mr Swan will tell delegates that Labor is facing one of the toughest elections battles in many years.

    “Many of the usual pundits have written us off. My advice is to not listen to them,” Mr Swan will say.

    “There’s no sure thing in a two-horse race, especially when one of the jockeys is called Tony Abbott.

    “We can win. We have to.”………………………………..

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-19/crean-warns-against-dumping-gillard/4526052

    I was taught as a young child, never place bets on a two horse race. One can always fall over. Remember that skater years ago, won the race, when the rest of the field topple over. He only had to be the last man standing to win.

    It might be prudent to wait until the race is won, before one begins gloating.

  98. One only has to look at the so called policies that Abbott has attempted to release, or rather leak. They have all been met with ridicule. has this hurt Abbott. It appears not.

    if bad policy, with the lack of detail does not hurt Mr. Abbott, why should the PM be dammed as some say, for what some perceive as bad decisions and policies.

    Especially in hindsight and the light of day, the same policies are considered worthwhile. it is then said, it is the way the PM released then, that is the trouble.

    It is time to begin judging both in the same manner.

    At this time, we have an Opposition leader that can do no wrong. If he does, no one seems to care.

    We have a PM that can do no right. Even if her policies and ;legislation is considered good, down the track.

  99. ME. I am not even sure if Abbott will want to satay around if he did win

    His history shows he quickly becomes bored, once he has achieved his aims.

    He does not seem to like to apply himself to the task.

    He comes across as very lazy, except when he is in a race, or playing out the role of attack dog..

    I have a suspicion, that Abbott might be satisfied with winning, and will quickly move onto another challenge, What that would be, I have no idea.

  100. Min, no they have been out there, working hard. Look at that PC at Westmead hospital yesterday. Would we know what really occurred if it was not for the web, That part was not shown, and gave a false perception of what really occurred.

    That was a spirited defence by the local member.

    Same was the spirited defense of the PM coming from the unions. Yes, even Mr. Howes excelled himself. This is good,as the PM needs to get the unions and Labor base back on side, before she moves on. (I do not have that much regard for Howes, but cannot faulty him this week. Big enough man, to admit he could have been wrong)

    As Hawkes pointed out yesterday. The PM did manage to turn things about last year. There is no reason she cannot do it again. This from a man, that said early last year, the PM had no chance of winning.

    The media ignore or the good things that is occurring, to focus on useless polls. It seems to be the media that is obsessed with polls. Suspect most of the public could not care less.

    I take that rise we see at the top of the page, could indicate that people are once again beginning to listen.

    At the end o the day, the decision will be that of the voters, not now, but on September 14.. Not the media or the trolls that come here gloating.

    As in all races, one has no option, but to go in and fight as hard as one can. This PM has the guts to keep the fight up to the tape. Many are guilty of under estimating her. The proof of this, is three years later, she manage to hold onto power, and is still in government.

    The PM has not had one easy day.

    If the PM has faith, maybe it is time for Labor supporters to back her.

    After all, the PM has the runs on the board. It is the media and the opposition that is desperate to have Rudd back.

    Does one give any thought to why they feel this way. Does one really believe they would be so desperate, if the PM was so ineffective. I suspect the reality is, that they all fear her.

    Greens today at NPC

  101. Crowey it’s a good one isn’t it? At least I’ve heard one or two news stories correctly identify the States’ role.

    Under the Federal government’s national health reforms the States have been getting significant funding increases year on year, but it is on the back of the proviso the States also contribute a fair share of the costs.

    Instead the Liberal governments are substantially cutting funding, as they are doing in so many areas on the back of a string of broken promises, but then cry poor when the Federal government under the model the States agreed to reduce their contributions likewise.

    Then the Liberal States go into a full blame the Federal government meme.

  102. Listening to Abbott’s rubbish this morning. He still seems to believe the election will before Sep 14.

    I wonder if he realises, there cannot be an election for both houses before August. If one did occur, it would put the houses out of sync

    I would not be in his interest if this was to occur, as Abbott has promised to keep going back to the electorate, until he gets the results he wants.

    I believe this was discussed on last nights Lateline.

    By the way, Abbott does not believe in divide and rule. Does not believe in getting ideas from overseas, So we are wrong about the tea party influences.Does not believe in class envy. Yes, butter would not melt in his mouth as it is not he that has been negative, but the PM.

    Yes, we have it all wrong about him.

  103. Wow did Christine Milne just sever the last thread of any possibility of avoiding a complete Democrat style annihilation. She phoned the PM and said the marriage is over. My prediction is a long walk into a politically irrelevant and desolate wilderness. Many in The ALP will shed no crocodile tears. I hope she does realise standing on the shoulders of others does not actually make you tall. Sadly unlike the Democrats not one bastard has been kept honest. Post Bob; if a green calls in the forest, nobody will listen..

  104. And speaking of polls, there is a poll in the Guardian newspaper regarding voting intentions. No no not that Guardian newspaper but the one in country Victoria, in National Party heartland. It asks the usual questions like who do you vote for, preferred PM etc.etc. Then you get to the question which asks, do you think Australia will be better off or worse off after the September 14 election, the sneaky trick is that you do not get the chance to tick who you think the country will be better or worse off under,Julia Gillard or Abbott. It is just a blanket ask. Now because this poll is in National Party heartland the majority of people are National Party faithful,so you would probably conclude that National Party voters will be the majority of people responding to the poll. So when the result comes out saying Abbott is the preferred PM, the result will also show that the country will be better off under Abbott. So if you thought Julia Gillard was your choice as PM she will not get the credit. Just another way how the mendacious,moronic misfits in the Main Stream Media manipulate things. The headlines will read, Australia will be better off after September 14 with an Abbott Government poll says.

  105. Listening to Christine Milne it is still the old story, “do it my way or I’ll sever ties with you” The Greens are blackmailing bullies.

  106. Either Milne is secretly working with Labor to make them look good, or she’s a fruit loop.

    Personally, I don’t think she can work with anyone

  107. “By the way, Abbott does not believe in divide and rule. Does not believe in getting ideas from overseas, So we are wrong about the tea party influences.Does not believe in class envy. Yes, butter would not melt in his mouth as it is not he that has been negative, but the PM.

    Yes, we have it all wrong about him”

    You certainly do!

  108. “Either Milne is secretly working with Labor to make them look good, or she’s a fruit loop. Personally, I don’t think she can work with anyone”

    Personally I prefer this: Milne got what she wanted and this is either falling out of thieves or the cutting loose of the rotting carcass that is the ALP today.

  109. Yes, we have it all wrong about him”

    You certainly do!

    Treetroll, Abbott is a dufus and boofhead. It’s predictable that right wingers would support him. The more ignorant and klutzy the ‘leader’ the more they identify with him.

  110. The only thin rotting around here is between tree trolls ears. Yeah of course he miraculously changed into a great guy, the white night of the battler overnight. Seriously troll you go from sublime to ridiculous in a sentence. You are consistent tree troll, I’ll give you that.

  111. Pingback: Up The Opinion Poll « The Australian Independent Media Network

  112. There’s a good psychology piece that’s been around for a while now on why conservative followers need to blindly follow their leaders no matter how bad they are or how much they are being screwed by them.

    I’ll see if I can find the study again as it was sourced in Dunlop’s old blog and described the Howardistas to a tee. Seems the Abbott lovers are even more gormless in their blind faith in this idiot puppet of a leader.

  113. Ok. Abbott is a ‘phenomenon’ in Oz politics. He is the ‘black hole’ of right wing bias. It swirls around him and is absorbed into his zeitgeist. He is the Left Wing’s ‘ANTI-CHRIST’. He is our 666. He must be exorcised…….

  114. FEEDBACK LOOP – A WAY TO EXPLAIN THE POLL

    So the news papers commission opinion polls, then report on them with a constant theme of leadership change, then take another poll regarding leadership change then report on the poll through the view of leadership change.

    How many times does this feedback loop need to happen before we have a result like these polls?

    The Age was awash with unimaginative leadership drivel today. They are generating their own news. Fuelling their own prophecy.

  115. I’m a bit late with my daily Abbott hatred. His comment in either the Australian or SMH this morning was that people living in Australia should speak with an Australian accent. On looking for it later I believe the comment has been pulled. Anyway this must show people that the man is a rascist and can’t wait to be in power to re-introduce “THE WHITE AUSTRALIA POLICY”

  116. Rob and,

    The Age was awash with unimaginative leadership drivel today. They are generating their own news. Fuelling their own prophecy.

    Well said, exceptionally well said. I remember a saying from the 60’s: It’s Mind Games, you don’t mind games (said in sinister tones).

  117. Rob, Min and all who are concerned. I for one am not playing their mind games.
    We all know better now how propaganda operates (read anything about its use in the 1930’s). We all need to stand firm and keep our resolve.
    Can’t find anything interesting on TV anymore, very limited to what to watch. NITV and a few SBS programs perhaps.

  118. Sandra, it seems to me that the media has forgotten that everything long lasting has not been the smear and the fear, but those things which inspire us.

  119. OK, let’s talk about opinion polls

    Some good points there, including the comparison to Howard’s position at the same time and how similar they are. Difference is the media propaganda campaign against the government this time round.

  120. They did, and it was wrong.

    So what’s the point?

    Currently it’s the Libs who are pushing the racist line and Howard was front and centre. That’s contemporary and pertinent.

  121. The point is someone was intimating it was the Liberals that introduced the policy. Being a stranger to the truth at least you confirmed it for a change!

  122. The point is someone was intimating it was the Liberals that introduced the policy.

    Or it’s just your paranoia 😉

  123. “I thought it was Labor who introduced the White Australia policy.”

    Sadly scaper you are correct. That used to be one of those Labor values from the past we keep hearing about.

    Glad it has been discarded over time.

    I could be and I am probably wrong, but I think it was Mr. Caldwell that proudly exclaimed that 2 wongs do not make a white. Or something like that.

    We had Chinese here since the early days of the colonies. In the 1950 they were still living in China towns within our cities.

    There are many old Labor values, that I am glad do not exist today.

  124. My history is scanty but it was I believe Mr Caldwell that set up the post war refugee programme. it was Labor, I am sure,

    Not too sure when the white Australia disappeared. Could it have been in Whitlam’s days, dealing with the Vietnam refugee problems. It was definitely Fraser that bough some stability to the Vietnam boat problems..

    Mr. Howard had big problems with racism when he ran for the PM the first time. It contributed to his defeat.

    He had to do a lot of fence mending in his seat, which had a large and growing Asian population It was of benefit to Rudd when he won the 2007 elections..

  125. CU, I have been meaning to say how much I like your new gravatar, and I hope you are not too fed up, and don’t stay fed up too long 😀

    Keep up the great work 😎

    Cheers 🙂 😀

  126. Fu, Cu 😯 😀 ….. What TS said…… you old battle-axe u 😯 😳 😉 …. p.s. seems you’ve pushed a few buttons lately….. ya must be doin’ something right (left 😉 ) 😆 ….. “Keep up the great work” Caught Up ( and passed a few ) ….. luv the new ‘handle’… umm, Fu :grins:

  127. You’ve listed events, but failed to mention the *consequences* of those events. The repercussions of those events, often lasted for days, and often portrayed the government in a very bad light. For instances you mention: February 9: Treasurer Wayne Swan revealed the mining tax raised just $126 million during its first six months of operation. But the important aspect is the political consequences of that. Nova Peris is given one line – but the highlighting of the split in the party was profound. What about the ALP inept handling of the religious exceptions from anti-discrimination law. That dominated the headlines for days! Events have consequences!

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