The Great Southern Warming

The Great Southern Ocean is the southern most of the Word’s oceans and is generally taken to be roughly around 55 degrees latitude and that which encircles Antarctica. The cold waters are circumpolar that is, they circle the Antarctic and as matter of interest (great question for those into playing Trivia), therefore comprise the only ocean to circumnavigate the globe without being blocked by land.

Here the cold waters converge with the warmer waters of the north, and in turn create an intermixing which results in a concentration of marine plant life because of its higher than average nutrient concentrations. This increased plant life then results in a greater abundance of animal life.

The entire food chain, ecosystem of the Antarctic is brilliant in it’s simplicity, there being only three or four levels of species: from the basic photosynthetic organisms – the phytoplankton and zooplankton – krill – shellfish and other invertebrates – to the higher flesh-eating levels that include species such as whales, seals, fish, seabirds and penguins.

However, due to this same simplicity and their dependence on this one food source, krill, baleen whales such as humpbacks, fins and blue whales are most susceptible to changes in the krill population.

Today the annual catch of krill is around 400,000 tons annually with over half of it for non-human consumption usually ending up as fish-meal or animal feed. With human consumption it is usually either minced, turned into a paste.

However, human activity such as fishing is not the only threat to krill. As phytoplankton is the main diet of the krill, this main food source is at severe risk from rises in sea temperatures. Rises in sea temperature alters the pattern of the phytoplankton blooms.

In addition, phytoplankton these little marvels of nature are not just as one would assume, the lowest rung on the food chain, this being important enough in itself but are responsible for about half the photosynthesis on the planet. They convert light and nutrients into organic material which is then fed right the way up through the food chain, making them a key elements of life on the planet. After dying, some of the plants drift down into the deep ocean and lock up carbon for very longer periods. That is, the same as land plants, they consume carbon dioxide and release oxygen.

And the bad news about climate change according to New Scientist is that if the top layer of ocean water warms, as it has done, the density contrast between it and the layer below becomes greater. This makes it harder for nutrients to reach the surface, which then starves the phytoplankton.

According to new research has been carried out by the CSIRO’s Dr. Rintoul warming now extends for four kilometres, from the ocean surface to the sea floor.

Researchers have however found that the strongest single predictor for phytoplankton levels was ocean surface temperature due to rising surface temperatures which prevent mixing between the oceans’ oxygen-rich upper layers, where phytoplankton are present, and the colder, more nutrient-rich waters below.

Marine biologist Boris Worm, in a study partly reproduced for Our Amazing Planet concluded that:

“…rising surface temperatures were associated with declining phytoplankton in eight of 10 regions. Of the other two regions, the North Indian Ocean had a stable phytoplankton population and the South Indian Ocean showed growth. The decline in phytoplankton seen around the poles, where it seems logical that increasing warmth would drive more growth, could be driven by increasing winds and ocean mixing, the researcher said.

Local factors such as polar melting and nutrient-rich runoff from agriculture also can influence the phytoplankton, Worm said.

“But all of these effects are unlikely to play out evenly on a global scale,” he said. “The only driver we have that affects phytoplankton everywhere is ocean warming.”

304 comments on “The Great Southern Warming

  1. Good article and timely as Howard back flips from saying climate change was real to now endorsing the mountebank Plimpton in saying it’s a hoax.

    I had a little giggle when on the back of a climate impact report released by Flannery, the ABC showed two scientists backing Flannery and stated that sceptics were criticising the report. So I expected the ABC to front with some scientists refuting the report, but who did they air saying it was all a great hoax that the Australian people are finally awake to?

    Alan Jones.

  2. Min

    I was only reading about krill and phytoplankton a couple of months ago and was amazed at the amount of oxygen and carbon involved.

    My saddest fear is that humanity will not stop until our oceans have been raped and pillaged, species made extinct and oceans polluted so badly that the majority of areas will be unfit for species habitation, just like the rivers of the world. This on top of climate change.

  3. Oceans are the greatest carbon sink and also the greatest oxygen producers on the planet. So whilst most are rightly railing against the whole scale destruction of forests and jungles they are overlooking the destruction of the ocean environments.

    And it’s not just pollution and over fishing that’s a worry but ocean floor mining is increasing at a rapid pace and some of it involves scraping large areas of the ocean bed leaving massive destruction behind. There are also moves afoot to open the Antarctic to mining.

    When it comes to making money there is no place on the planet that he mining industries don’t want to exploit and destroy for their profits.

  4. Which is yet another reason why I cannot but help smile to myself when denialists state that it’s possible to move entire ecosystems ‘elsewhere’. No phytoplankton, no krill, no baleen whales. Try interrupting the migratory pattern of several species of whales and telling them to go ‘elsewhere’.

  5. Shane, humanity is not willing to stop even when its own immediate environment is clearly becoming unfit for human habitation. We see this here in the response to things like the MDB report…….and to events around fire, flood, drought. We think only of ourselves. We blame committees, government policies, or try to find individuals to scapegoat for what we see as local problems. Who lit the fires? Who failed to provide sufficient dams? Anything to avoid the uncomfortable truth.

    Bangladeshis can tell you about the impact on them of what is happening in the Great Southern Ocean. But then so could the thousands of families in Australia who will lose a loved one this summer through heat stroke, an increasing toll every year.

    Climate change? It’s a hoax! Absolute crap.

  6. Excellent post Min. I had not heard about this issue, thanks for bringing it to my attention. It really is scary what a few changes in degrees can do. This is what most who are now pushing for ‘mitigation’ fail to comprehend. Mitigation is only cheaper as long as the butterfly effect does not coalesce too much

    but who did they air saying it was all a great hoax that the Australian people are finally awake to?

    I saw that too ME, and hung my head in shame at the thorough duplicitous nature of it all.

    In the absence of balance, manufacture some. The truth is, there is no ‘balanced’ opposing view, only an extreme minority who are being exposed for the liars and charlatans that they are.

  7. Patricia, it would seem that many of us are very selfish indeed, and that the only time that people care about things such as the environment is when it effects them personally.

    I think sometimes that those who deny the science of climate change are those who think of themselves as some sort of ‘supreme beings’, always in control of everything. We are not of course, we are just as vulnerable to the impacts of the natural world as those who live much closer to it such as native and indigenous peoples.

  8. Shane, the thing that struck me the most was the simplicity of the system – yet just via it’s simplicity it is also incredibly vulnerable to any changes whatsoever.

  9. Min

    The simple things in life are often the best, as the saying goes. But usually the simple things in life are also the most vulnerable.

    Last year there were hundreds of Swallowtail Butterfly Caterpillars eating my citrus and I reserve 4 trees for them to do so. This year there are none. One simple pleasure of seeing them flying all around the garden seems to be lost as well.

  10. Shane, I’m certain what climatic factors are at play here but only 1 swarm of Christmas beetles which is very very unusual and those which did arrive are only about 1/2 normal size.

  11. Min and Shane, as if to confirm our exchange here just now about the world’s priorities, this morning’s hard copy headline in the Oz (glimpsed over someone’s shoulder at South Beach coffee shop!) told us the global share market should have us shaking in our shoes!

    Back here looking for a reference on the web that headline had disappeared and been replaced by a “Stocks Soar!” story.

    Imagine how much easier tackling climate change would be if the media world-wide were as pre-occupied with the environment as with the financial system.

    PS Miglo, are you aware of problems with line hold and space in the Comments box here at CW? I am having difficulty when typing up a comment, but only on your site.

  12. Patricia, I’m not having that problem at the moment however I was with the comments box ‘jumping’ but that seemed to correct itself last week.

  13. Excellent post Min, and Bob Carr has a ‘few’ words on the subject as well.

    Climate Change is ALP Business
    http://bobcarrblog.wordpress.com/2011/12/01/climate-change-is-alp-business/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Of course, even if we were inclined to relegate it, circumstances will correct us.

    Tuesday saw the release of research providing the first snapshot of climate change altering the dynamics of the Southern Ocean. It confirmed the more rapid melting of Antarctic ice sheets, the ocean becoming less salty and the waters becoming more acid.

    Our focus has been on chemical changes on the earth’s upper atmosphere – overwhelmingly believed by scientists to be caused by human activity and to be the cause, in turn, of global warming. But this might be overtaken by a new anxiety about the state of our oceans as they struggle to absorb the surplus carbon being pumped out by the world’s coal-fired power plants.

  14. I must admit, the media appear to have grown up a bit in relation to the climategate 2.0 non event. I haven’t seen much about it. Maybe they learnt their lesson from last time, or maybe these ones really are just that obvious in their intent.

    Deltoid has a good post up about them

    On the trick to hide the context

    http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2011/11/on_the_trick_to_hide_the_conte.php

    There is also an excellent link in the post to another article (in the Guardian) which actually steps through some of the more well travelled misrepresentations, and what they actually do say

  15. Good one Pip, thank you for that. I was reading that this increased acidity in the Great Southern Ocean is also having it’s impact on shellfish, fairly scary when you think about it’s potential impact.

    Acidification of the world’s oceans from rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere reduces the amount of calcium carbonate in seawater, a compound some marine organisms use to build shells and skeletons. It may even dissolve calcium carbonate structures. Effects on key species have the potential to alter entire ecosystems.

    http://www.niwa.co.nz/aquatic-biodiversity-and-biosecurity/update/aquatic-biodiversity-biosecurity-30-june-2010/ocean-acidification-and-antarctic-shel

  16. No surprises here !

    Study: climate tax coverage has been biased
    http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/analysis/new-study-news-limited-climate-coverage-has-been-biased?utm_source=The+Power+Index&utm_campaign=75052eac7e-The_Power_Daily_1_Dec_2011&utm_medium=email

    An extensive study examining coverage of the carbon tax debate has found that News Limited papers crossed the line from reporting to campaigning.

    Sydney’s highest-selling paper, The Daily Telegraph, was most hostile to the policy, with 89% of articles expressing negativity and only 11% being positive about the tax.

    “Both The Daily Telegraph and The Herald Sun were so biased in their coverage it is fair to say they campaigned against the policy, rather than covered it,” writes report author Wendy Bacon, a professor of journalism at the Australian Centre of Independent Journalism.

    “Many Australians did not receive fair, accurate and impartial reporting in the public interest in relation to the carbon policy in 2011.”

  17. Excellent Pip. Often we can ‘know’ that coverage of issues is extremely unbalanced but just how unbalanced is mostly unknown – therefore stats such as these are so important. 89% negativity. And some say that the government should do better to sell it’s policies – how, when you’re faced with this sort of bias.

  18. Min, we probably won’t find this story given any prominence at ltd news either.

    Health imperilled by climate change: Report
    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3379636.htm

    TONY EASTLEY: Australians are being warned that their health is being put at risk by climate change.

    A Climate Commission report out today says climate change related injury, disease and deaths will continue to grow in decades to come unless sustained action is taken.

    At the same time the United Nations says 2011 has been one of the warmest years on record.

    The UN’s world meteorological organisation says this year ranks as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1850.

    Professor Lesley Hughes co-authored the Climate Commission report.

  19. Thank you el gordo, a very interesting link. I haven’t read it all as yet but will give make it some priority reading for this evening.

  20. Thanks el gordo it is of great interest. Global Warming is a real problem and its effect on the Southern Ocean as described in that paper is significant.

  21. El gordo, do you realise you’ve provided a link to an article that doesn’t support the argument you regularly espouse? Is there something to be read into this?

  22. Pip @7.23pm no I should not imagine that health issues will receive more than a footnote. Another one with regard to ocean warming is the number of people whose primary source of protein is fish and seafood, especially smaller island nations.

  23. ‘l gordo, do you realise you’ve provided a link to an article that doesn’t support the argument you regularly espouse?’

    Yes, just thought you might be interested.

    I got a few laughs out of it.

  24. Particularly this at short notice.

    ‘At short notice, a multi-disciplinary team of Australian scientists, led by ACE Oceans Program Leader Dr Steve Rintoul, organised a voyage to investigate the impacts of this unique event. This voyage to the Mertz region was undertaken in the summer of 2010/11 on the ice-breaker Aurora Australis…’

    A junket to discover that the water is fresher than normal when a large chunk of ice is part of the mix.

  25. Roswell,
    Could be, to put up a link which contradicts all previous arguments and then to say that you got a few laughs out of it doesn’t appear to be very rational behaviour. But maybe I’ve missed something.

  26. AntonyG/Roswell,

    El gordo seems to think that coming over here for a laugh gives her bragging rights. Or it might have been just a ‘double dare’. We’ll be able to read about her brave exploits across the blogosphere: “I went to the Cafe and made a fool of them. They’re such a gullible bunch of head nodders. Really, why did I bother?”

    Any takers?

  27. Roswell, I have a feeling that el gordo might have been fooling herself. Actually as Mobius and I both noted, it was a very good link. If it is as it appears to be, and that is some sort of juvenile gotcha… Or maybe we’ve misinterpreted el gordo’s intention.

  28. Never mind Roswell, I was fooled as well. I honestly thought that el gordo arrived for some serious debate instead of the usual discredited denialati blab.

  29. Miglo, @ 8.45pm, “Any takers?”

    Nope, I’ve got better things to do with my time than pay attention to el gordo + company.

  30. ‘But I thought it was all for a laugh. Yours.’

    Yeah…well, I thought Rintoul’s excursion to the southern ocean was amusing.

  31. But why?

    Dr Rintoul is a physical oceanographer studying the role of the ocean in the Earth’s climate system, with a particular interest in the Southern Ocean.

    Dr Rintoul was awarded the inaugural Georg Wüst Medal by the German Society of Marine Research in 2005.

    His current interests include:

    ocean currents and how they affect Earth’s climate
    the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current
    how ocean currents influence sea ice, biogeochemical cycles, and the distribution of biological productivity.

    http://www.csiro.au/en/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/Marine–Atmospheric-Research/SteveRintoul.aspx

  32. Well perhaps el gordo would rather defer to the superior scientific qualifications, experience and years of research of Anal Jones.

    After all, their ABC seemed to think his knowledge of the science of climatology based on being a rugby coach and shock jock was vastly superior to climate scientists who actually have credentials and have spent years practicing their discipline.

    Who are we to argue with such logic?

    On the basis of of that, I feel a nomination coming on for BSA Bob’s thread.

  33. Anything about Anal Jones would be hard to top.

    You’d think so, but ray hadley is giving it his best

    High-rating 2GB presenter Ray Hadley has unloaded again on Crikey and Tim Flannery over an allegation he hatched a plot with one of his neighbours to expose Flannery as a climate change hypocrite.

    It’s not bad enough that he releases private information about someone, he then gets all arced up about what is starting to look very much like it was a set up in the first place.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/24/ray-hadley-v-tim-flannery-and-david-the-neighbour/

    And the dumbest thing about the whole argument. Yes, Flannery owns a waterfront property. But it sits meters above the sea level, so high that not even the worst case scenarios will be worrying him in 100 years.

    Now, I don’t know if Flannery making such a big deal over such a stupid story is a good thing on the public relations front, but I can certainly understand him getting jacked off over this invation of privacy, and the innuendo that is attached to it.

    It was an unfoldiong story that appeared to be unfolding the wrong way for hadley. Seems to have gone a bit quiet lately. If you want to read the sordid tale from the beginning, start with the last link first.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/23/ray-hadley-tim-flannery-crikey/

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/22/flannery-hadley-concocted-story-on-my-waterside-home/

  34. Has anyone noticed that Mr. Abbott has developed a whine in his voiced. Just listening to him giving his repetitive spiel at a West Gosford bed spring mattress.

    I wish one could hear the questions heard.

    Maybe if we listen long enough, we will hear him say something new.

    Smart cracks are not answers.

  35. He is going to make his figures credible, unlike the governments figures tht are revised month to month.

    Has Mr. Abbott found a crystal ball or developed the ability to see into the future.

  36. And I’m still waiting for you to start a discussion. Just throwing in a link to a scientific paper is not starting a discussion at all.

    You either support the scientific findings of the study, you don’t or something inbetween, but up to now you have not elucidated anything except you find a scientific trip to study an ocean “amusing”.

    So are you going to start a meaningful discussion on where the Rintoul paper has it right, wrong or inbetween and the scientific basis for your response in support, denigration or something inbetween?

  37. Barry Bickmore is Associate Professor of Geological Sciences at Brigham Young University. His research specialties are low-temperature geochemistry and geoscience education. In this presentation, he discusses how he moved from being a climate change “skeptic” to being an outspoken advocate of mainstream climate science. He then discusses how it is that people like him can so effectively avoid the truth about climate change.

    There are some great topics covered in this, and I am hoping to perhaps write up a simple overview of the speech one day soon, with that appropriate links and highlights. It is a long one though, over 40 minutes, but well worth the time

  38. Mobius, I accept your invitation and will return with some peer review on the southern ocean, which should illustrate that nothing unnatural is happening.

    Working at the moment…

  39. Just a quick search shows me dozens of articles and several science reports on the Southern Ocean warming due to climate change.

    The Southern Ocean and global climate

    That one source alone from the Australian Academy of Science is a rich source of links and data on the Southern Ocean and global warming.

    I’m not going to get into a link war on this and if you only throw more links to sources without explanation then you have not started a discussion at all. Though I wouldn’t be surprised that as has happened often with your past sources they will not support your contention or state what you aver they do.

  40. El gordo, that will be interesting. You are going to return with peer supported material which will support your hypothesis that nothing unnatural is happening in the South Ocean.

  41. Tom, as long as el gordo doesn’t try to bring up the subject of Lowe’s suits…heavens, that joke must be at least 3 years old from way way back at Blogocrats. How embarrassing to not know what you’re talking about.

  42. As compared to this plethora of verified and empirical real world data data like this:

    Observing the Southern Ocean
    Measuring how much water, heat and salt is being carried from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, south of Australia.
    Measuring the rate at which water sinks from the sea surface.
    Understanding the role of ocean circulation in controlling the biological productivity of Southern Ocean surface waters.
    Conventional current meters
    Inverted echo sounders
    Sea floor electrometers

    A good place to start:

    The Science of Climate change: Questions and Answers.
    A document summarising the current understanding of climate change science for non-specialist readers.

    Climate change: Cold hard facts on a hot topic (by Tas van Ommen)
    Provides an overview of the role of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in climate change.

    And rather this being a sudden junket, this research has been on the back of regular and consistent trips to the Southern Ocean, each building on the data from the previous trips and can be used for comparison. For instance here is the Rintaul 2005:
    Autumn 2005
    Southern Ocean studies reveal widespread changes (by Steve Rintoul)
    Describes research indicating that the deep waters of the Southern Ocean are cooler and less salty than they were 10 years ago.

    So even if you contend the ocean is warming but it’s natural it needs to be explained how come it’s man made carbon that’s saturating the oceans and causing increased acidification and warming, not natural carbon.

  43. I accept the southern ocean is warming, but not that it should be of concern.

    With a warmer ocean you might expect thermal expansion which would see sea level rise. In addition to some very large chunks of ice floating in the area and melting at a rapid rate.

    Yet the science tells us that sea levels stopped rising a couple of years ago.

  44. El gordo, with the warming of the oceans will we see more more storm activity like was recently experienced in northern Queensland. Things like Cyclone Yasi might well become annual events.

    But as you say, it shouldn’t be of any concern.

    Not to you, that is.

  45. El gordo re the southern ocean warming and that it should not be of concern – just that it kills phytoplankton and then everything else up the food chain is short of din-dins.

    Yes indeed there have been phytoplankton blooms as a result of the warming but these are not where the ecosystems which include penguins and migratory whales need them.

    Well, yes I suppose that it doesn’t matter unless you care about odd creatures such as baleen whales.

  46. “Yet the science tells us that sea levels stopped rising a couple of years ago.”

    And what science would that be?

  47. Mobius, and a deathly silence pervades the topic as el gordo runs off to locate the peer reviewed material which indicates that nothing is abnormal is happening in the Southern Ocean.

  48. ‘…deathly silence pervades…’

    Just finished work, so give me time to settle in and read your links.

  49. North Carolina is acceptable and the second link is interesting (and deserves a closer look) but the last one is crap.

    Been called back onto the job, sorry for the delay, back after 6pm.

  50. From your second link.

    ‘This decrease in sea level is short-term, and when we switch back to El Niño conditions — warmer equatorial ocean temperatures — the trend will reverse once again, and sea levels will start to rise steadily.’

    That sounds reasonable, but we are only a few years into the IPO (interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) which generally means for the next 20 years we will have more La Nina and less El Nino.

    So based on his thinking we can expect sea level to fall further.

  51. Bob Tisdale always has impressive graphs and it appears La Nina is having a definite effect in the Pacific, but the Indian and Atlantic Oceans show little downward trend.

    I was impressed by the idea that the Pacific Ocean is losing its water to the land, it makes sense. Fun to follow that one up.

  52. A paper by Alexander Kolker and Sultan Hameed “Meteorologically driven trends in sea level rise” was covered by World Climate Report.

    ‘…these researchers investigated whether the variability and trends in sea level rise along the North American and European coasts of the Atlantic Ocean could be at least partially explained by variations in the strength and position of the dominant atmospheric circulation patterns that characterize the Atlantic region.’

    Concentrating on a small local area to gauge sea level rise is not useful.

  53. And again el gordo produces sources that don’t exactly back the original contention posted.

    Posts some statements apparently from scientific papers but without a link to the source so the context is meaningless and only what el gordo applies to it, meaning we are supposed to take her spin on the statement.

    Makes out as though she’s knowledgeable and her opinion on a scientific study carries a lot of weight.” I was impressed by the idea that the Pacific Ocean is losing its water to the land, it makes sense. Fun to follow that one up.”

    Shows a graph without context and it doesn’t back el gordo’s contention up one bit. I can produce several as impressive graphs out of context linked by tiny url so they are separated from the full paper explaining them and they will show ocean levels acidifying and rising.

    What kills el gordo’s contention in using an isolated graph with no context attached to it is 1999. Look at that year and what happened after it. Yet again el gordo in an a very tiresome denier trick take an isolated short term event and attempts to make it a long term trend. Remember the graphs posted recently that revealed this deception used by deniers.

    Uses Ltd News as a source a couple of times.

    Still awaiting the peer review study that proves el gordo’s contention.

  54. Roswell, I suspect not. El gordo provided an excellent link as both myself and Mobius observed.

    Well..the rest is history. El gordo has read the links and so it’s completely pointless trying to convince a person who knows all the factual information.

    The Denialiti are a religion – they do not accept science, they do not accept that the earth revolves around the Sun because in spite of all the scientific facts, their faith/the Religion of the Denialti tell them to take it on faith.

    When you are trying to deal with the Denialati it’s the exact same thing as trying to deal with a religious fanatic. It’s best to move on…

  55. The problem with debating climate change is that we tend to fall back on peer review, this is unfortunate. It becomes a battle of great complexity because the system is chaotic and there is no certainty of what lies ahead.

    Mobius put up some good arguments, which have kept me thinking on the subject of atmospheric science and the deep ocean circulation.

    How long will it take for the southern ocean to cool with La Nina constantly hovering for a decade or two?

  56. Peer review is the only sort of review possible, because these are the only persons with the scientific expertise to be able to assess the data and it’s implications. For example, I can read different opinions and therefore form my own opinion, but I would never be able to ‘review’ the studies..I simply do not possess a Masters degree or a PhD on the subject.

  57. El gordo, there are bound to be some regional differences and as you have pointed out a few examples where ‘warming’ could be beneficial. However, as the dryest continent on earth, it isn’t going to be us.

  58. ‘However, as the dryest continent on earth, it isn’t going to be us.’

    The next two decades will be wet in Oz, with unbelievable floods.

  59. el grodo says “I would be happier cherry picking weather to prove my argument.”

    Tell us something we didn’t know eg.

  60. I think that one would also need to look at the particular scientists..what level of study – which field of expertise – and who are their financial backers.

  61. they have been saying for years that global warming will decrease the intensity of the Santa Ana Winds.

    Who is ‘they’ (with links too)

  62. el gordo, does that 17 years begin from what was the highest temperature in that and many decades before.

    This allows the line to go down,I will admit.

    It does not show that the temperatures overall are going down.

    None have gone below the previous decade before that high.

    They have only remain just below that high.

  63. And what of the growing list of climate and other specialist scientists who were once global warming sceptics and have now come out and stated it’s real?

    For mine they far outweigh the ones who have gone the other way. There is also the list of scientists who openly admit they were paid by vested interests to find or argue against climate change even though there stance is the science shows it’s probably real.

    “Reformed Climate Skeptic” Discusses How the Science Changed His Mind

    And people do you note the sideways shift away from rising oceans back to the old hammered meme of global cooling, and again linking it to weather events?

  64. And don’t forget the number of scientists who had their funding cut under Howard if they went against his policy at the time, which was, that climate change was a furphy.

    For more information refer to the book Silencing Dissent.

  65. ‘And people do you note the sideways shift away from rising oceans back to the old hammered meme of global cooling, and again linking it to weather events?’

    Yes I did notice that, its a disgrace.

  66. CU it is unlikely that temperatures will get back to 1998 levels until at least 2050, even as CO2 levels continue upward.

    There is wild talk now of a Maunder Minimum, but that is highly alarmist. On the other, if Katla blows then all bets are off. .

  67. ‘Things like Cyclone Yasi might well become annual events.’

    It came with one of the strongest La Nina on record. The waters to the north of Australia were very warm and the Pacific had cooled, which may explain Yasi’s humungous size.

    With all our sophisticated technology we are still flying blind, but the science suggests cyclones are not increasing in number or intensity.

  68. ‘According to new research has been carried out by the CSIRO’s Dr. Rintoul warming now extends for four kilometres, from the ocean surface to the sea floor.’

    Extraordinary claim, I’ll follow that up.

    In the meantime, here’s and image of where the currents travel.

  69. grodo, caught out lying again

    Nothing in the report about the santa ana winds diverge from the report linked to, yet the conclusion is already drawn from the armchair This must be an indication of regional cooling.. In fact, even this ‘extreme’, once a decade event is not as intense as previous, and, as a whole, these events ARE decreasing in regularity. Just as the report observes

    Stick to politics grodo, and quit your trolling on this issue

  70. El gordo, the reason that Rintoul is the only one talking about the 4km depth of warming is because he only released his study last week. Rintoul is a scientist, he is not giving an opinion, he is reporting on his data.

    That link on volcanic activity is interesting.

  71. I agree Min, the Rintoul paper is the latest, so we can expect a critique at some point.

    The positive aspect of a warmer southern ocean is more snow and ice on Antarctica.and unseasonal snowfalls in the Tasmanian highlands.

  72. El gordo, that could indeed be true. Why would a warmer southern ocean around Antarctica mean more snow and ice. Now I do have an inkling of the answer to this, just checking if you know too. 😉

  73. Rain turns to snow if its cold enough, then becomes compacted ice, which explains why Antarctica isn’t melting.

    Icebergs are more common in the southern ocean when ice is building on Antarctica.

  74. I’m only a small scale environmentalist but you say Antarctica isn’t melting when it is. Why you say that it isn’t,is not for me to understand.

    I can’t usually be bothered doing other people’s reseach for them because if they were interested enough they would go and look for themselves, but here is NASA’s opinion.

    “Gravity data collected from space using NASA’s Grace satellite show that Antarctica has been losing more than a hundred cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice each year since 2002. The latest data reveal that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, too.”

  75. Thax Nimue, I’ll have a look.

    From an historical perspective Cook, Bellingshausen, Wilkes and Ross in the late 18th and early 19th centuries reported where the ice edge was located.

    They compared it to early satellite observations and found little had changed, since 2002 Antarctica might have been losing ‘ice at an accelerating rate’.

    Interesting.

  76. El gordo, perhaps the mapping ability of NASA is a little improved since the days of Wilkes and Ross.

    Interesting though is that the Antarctic was a theoretical possibility well before it was discovered, this being from the days of Ptolemy in about the 1st Century AD as a ‘balance’ to the earth.

  77. Melting may be happening around the Peninsula, but the NSIDC says Antarctica is cooling and sea ice is increasing.

    ‘Sea ice extent in the Antarctic has been unusually high in recent years, both in summer and winter. Overall, the Antarctic is showing small positive trends in total extent.

    ‘For example, the trend in February extent is now +3.1% per decade. However, the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas show a strong negative trend in extent.

    ‘These overall positive trends may seem counterintuitive in light of what is happening in the Arctic.’

  78. I like to keep it casual, sitting in the cafe getting an education, trying to develop a conversational style with few links.

    The snow in Tasmania is not unnatural for this time of year. When the First Fleet reached Tasmania after grueling trip in the southern ocean, Dr White said “as we run with the land, which is pretty high we were surprised to see, at this season of the year, some small patches of snow.”

  79. “I like to keep it casual, sitting in the cafe getting an education, trying to develop a conversational style with few links.”

    No el gordo, that’s not what you are doing at all. Don’t treat us like idiots here please.

  80. Each time you click on a new page, a new banner is produced.

    Thanks for clearing that up Migs.

    I thoght it changed everytime grodo lied again. The Pinochio effect.

    The way he pastes wtfuwt little meme’s here, years after they have been exposed for the lies they are, is pathetic.

  81. Or the random pasting of very localised weather events from around the world that have nothing to do with the topic, but are posted as a distraction.

  82. No el gordo, I think you randomly pasting bits of very localised weather snippets have nothing to do with the topic and are posted as a distraction.

    I could just as easily continuously paste snippets of out of season hot weather events from around the world, but what does that achieve but to distract from the topic or discussion thread at the time.

  83. My gender has nothing to do with the topic, but if it amuses you…

    ‘I think you randomly pasting bits of very localised weather snippets…’

    There is method in my madness and before this thread falls off the end I hope to establish that a warmer southern ocean is natural, and has nothing to do with an increase in carbon dioxide.

    The acidification of the southern ocean may have something to do with industrial CO2, but that’s a different issue.

  84. I hope to establish that a warmer southern ocean is natural

    So much easier doing from your armchair what those prissy scientists cannot do out in there in the field

  85. “There is method in my madness and before this thread falls off the end I hope to establish that a warmer southern ocean is natural, and has nothing to do with an increase in carbon dioxide.”

    Sorry I’m a little bit confused here as wasn’t that your contention from almost the first post here, but it now turns out you haven’t established that at all but am still looking to do so.

    So let me understand this. You made an outright unequivocal unreserved contention as you nearly always do, this time about Southern Ocean temperature. But it now turns out you really don’t know and have to hunt around to find something that conforms to your outright unequivocal unreserved contention.

    You do know you have this debating/discussion thing arse about tit.

  86. There was snow on the highlands of Tasmania in the summer of 1788, while back home in England at the same time the weather was changeable and showery, but little snow or ice.

    You can be sure the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was positive, like now, which gives the UK Met the confidence to predict this winter won’t be so harsh.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

    Oscillations determine the weather, interacting in unison, so its almost possible to predict longer term.

    ‘On November 30, 1788 a spell of frost began which lasted until early January 1789. The Thames was frozen over and a frost fair held on it, the first for many years. It is said to have been the coldest December on record…’

    In the run up to this bitter winter It was a droughty year, exactly as is happening now in the UK, so I’m thinking they should keep their stockpiles of salt in preparation for the winter of 2012-13.

    The warmer southern ocean should begin to cool soon.

  87. The warmer southern ocean should begin to cool soon.

    Fair enough, you stick to your soothsaying, and I’ll go with the scientists 😉

  88. ‘you stick to your soothsaying, and I’ll go with the scientists’

    So you are saying the southern ocean will continue to warm?

  89. The positive aspect of the NAO can be attributed to Sol, with solar cycle 24 now set to wane.

    That’s why there are good prospects of a return to negative NAO values in the northern hemisphere winter 2012-13.

    This is a test bed for the solar physicists.

  90. As a lucid reply to grodo and his sun spots

    Trapped inside a web of fiery gravity that fuels all our needs
    chaotic energy that sucks the life from H to He
    all life withers in the sun
    I deny what I have done
    spend my days and nights
    in roaring halls of crimson fire
    solar confinement
    solar confinement, solar confinement
    solar distress flares
    I’ve slept with many strangers
    so fission fusion fishin’ makes good sense
    where I laid my head my troubles
    I put down to experience
    it’s warm and lonely in the sun
    I deny what I have done
    spend my days and nights
    in roaring halls of crimson fire
    a lonely boy sits in his room
    his curtains hide the sun
    confess to what you’ve done
    and no one understands

  91. Council makes bid for $5m seawalls revamp
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-05/council-makes-bid-for-5m-seawalls-revamp/3712496?section=qld

    The Torres Strait Island Regional Council says it has started work on a project to upgrade seawalls, despite no commitment from the Federal Government to fund the project.

    Mayor Fred Gela warned Prime Minister Julia Gillard earlier this year that residents on the outer islands in the Torres Strait off far north Queensland were at risk of becoming Australia’s first climate change refugees.

  92. ‘…Australia’s first climate change refugees.’

    More likely the first climate change refugees will be predominantly white Anglo Saxons of mature age and with large wallets, fleeing the cold winters.

    Once they get here, they will stay and encourage friends and family to join them.

  93. This is not good news

    Dr Raupach says the world is more than half way to reaching a trillion tonnes of carbon in the atmosphere – a figure regarded as being the threshold for dangerous climate change.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-05/global-emissions-on-the-rise/3712166

    It will be a long uphill battle, not made easier by rubbish like this actively pushed down ignorant (grodo?) peoples throats all to further line their own miserable pockets, at the expense of our future, which extends far beyond the next financial year.

    http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/the_war_on_science/

  94. I blame China for the extra emissions, that’s a well known fact, and this quote is true.

    The draft report says “uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability”.

  95. This quote is true.

    “el gordo quotes without context and supplying the source.”

    This quote is also true.

    “el gordo states as absolute truth without expertise, even stating “draft” reports as being inviolable.”

    You do know that out of context passage you quoted actually supports climate change el gordo? It’s what climate scientists who are AGW proponents have been stating almost from the start.

    But I guess it’s just another sidetrack and distraction. They are becoming very ho hum.

  96. The quote is from one of Tom’s links, probably the Oz being typically selective.

    It must be me, I thought it said natural variability rules over the next couple of decades and we don’t expect to see the AGW signal.

    Here is the SWPC solar cycle progression page, which will be worth bookmarking.

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

  97. I thought it said natural variability rules over the next couple of decades and we don’t expect to see the AGW signal.

    So, you are claiming ignorance then? Or is it stupidity? Or is it duplicitness?

  98. El gordo,
    I think that your slip is showing. This isn’t going unnoticed, some sort of dumbing down when on this blog.

    I concur with Mobius Ecko regarding his comment, No el gordo, that’s not what you are doing at all. Don’t treat us like idiots here please.

  99. Tom R, duplicity/duplicitness, are words I haven’t seen on this site for some time. Their absence makes this a far better blog site. 😉

  100. Don’t mind if I do Migs. It’s been a hard, hot day pluggin away at excel sheets 😉

    Of course, to clarify, if individuals want to debate in an honest manner, I am happy for that to occur. Unfortunately, it is a rarity.

  101. El gordo @12.33pm and So you are saying the southern ocean will continue to warm?

    And so you are saying that it’s not? If not, when will cooling occur and for which reason/s?

  102. I love working with Excel.

    You definitely deserve a drink after that comment 😉

    Although, I am constantly amazed at just how powerful excel is, when used correctly

  103. On a slightly different note, I thought that this was very interesting…

    Scientists from Japan and Russia believe it may be possible to clone a mammoth after finding wellpreserved bone marrow in a thigh bone recovered from permafrost soil in Siberia.

    This has of course been mooted before, but is now a good possibility given this recent find.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/Marrow+find+inspires+mission+clone+mammoth/5811694/story.html

    Migs, we’ve been waiting for you 🙂

  104. Tom, I think that I would rather a woolly mammoth…probably difficult to keep in a normal backyard, cost stacks to feed but excellent talking value in fact a bbq stopper.

  105. My watermelon mate thinks Tisdale is shit, but his graph is compelling.

    I may have to reconsider my position on southern ocean warming.

  106. Sorry el gordo, I’ve never heard of Tisdale. However, my marine scientist elder daughter thought that my post was pretty good. 🙂

  107. Your post was good Min and the citizen journalists here are certain to put up another post along similar lines when the thread expires.

    This is only weather, yet in my fertile imagination I see climate being played out before my eyes.

    ‘Sydney has had a run of cool days to start the summer, remaining below 23 degrees on each day so far, making this the coldest start to the season in 44 years.

    ‘This morning continued to trend of unseasonable temperatures, falling to 12 degrees, which is the coldest December morning in 16 years.’

  108. El gordo, and the driest November for Brisbane since 1919. Remember that cool overnight temperatures depending on the climate zone are often due to lack of cloud cover.

  109. Meanwhile, we had a regional warming in SEQ in November:

    Brisbane Metro in November 2011: Dry and warm

    Rainfall was very much below average, with Logan City receiving a record lowest total November rainfall

    Locations that had only received minimal rainfall since late October, finally received rainfall on the 24th November

    Brisbane’s dry spell lasted for 27 days (28th Oct to 23rd Nov, 2011), and previously November of 1842 received no rain and 29 no rain days in November 1951

    Minimum temperatures were very much above average, with a record highest November mean daily minimum temperature for Archerfield

    Maximum temperatures were above average

    See I can play your extremely silly game too 😛

  110. Sydney has had a run of cool days to start the summer

    Oh my god, it’s not a clone, IT IS bOLT!!

    BTW Min, I AGREE! with your eldest daughter

  111. Just a final point, Tisdale uses Reynolds SST data from NCDC because both the warmists and Denialati regard it as the accepted standard.

  112. El gordo, thank you for that link. I will have to give it to you, you have certainly done quite a lot of research on your topic. Obviously I’m not a scientist and cannot say whether the conclusion reached is or isn’t correct. However, I do know that we need a cleaner planet and if it takes a price on carbon to achieve this then it has my seal of approval.

  113. Roswell, I do wonder at times whether el gordo might be having us on. However, el gordo has certainly stimulated a lot of debate here at the Café.

  114. “Roswell, I do wonder at times whether el gordo might be having us on.”

    Most certainly. Picking bits and pieces and then posting disconnected statements with some out of context science information in them that make it sound like she knows what she’s talking about, but doesn’t really.

    It’s all about show and no substance.

    Take this statement: “Tisdale uses Reynolds SST data from NCDC because both the warmists and Denialati regard it as the accepted standard.”

    Well no. El gordo has come across a statement somewhere (most likely What’s Up With That as it’s a favourite of el gordos) to that effect so posts it here to make it sound like being very knowledgeable on the subject.

    Fact is that NCDC data uses Reynolds SST and Land Air Temperature (LAT) data, with the weighting on SST. It’s not a matter of Reynolds SST being used in isolation at all, as el gordo makes out in trying to sound impressive, but a combination of data which includes SST, LAT and other blended marine observatons. NCDC is used because it maintains the world’s largest archive on climate data.

    el gordo is just going around picking out random bits and throws them in here to either distract from something or to make it look like an answer because it mentions something on what’s being discussed, but often it isn’t.

    In other words trying to treat us like fools.

  115. ‘In other words trying to treat us like fools.’

    Nothing could be further from the truth. I’m just attempting to be ahead of the news cycle and have chosen climate change because this is the biggest story around and I have an interest in the science.

    Citizen journalists on the blogosphere ie. the ‘new journalist’ will be up to speed in one or two areas of interest and slowly become an authority on those subjects.

    On this single thread I have learnt a great deal and expect to learn more.

  116. Citizen journalists on the blogosphere ie. the ‘new journalist’ will be up to speed in one or two areas of interest and slowly become an authority on those subjects.

    I finally find something to agree on, el gordo. But wait, there’s more:

    On this single thread I have learnt a great deal and expect to learn more.

    That’s because we like to come up with something new, instead of repeating the same old rubbish over and over.

  117. ‘That’s because we like to come up with something new…’

    The Antarctica Peninsula melt is natural and the Southern Ocean is not warming.

    The spotlight is now clearly on the relationship between SAM and ENSO.

  118. ‘In October, 2011, NASA’s Operation IceBridge discovered a major rift in the Pine Island Glacier in western Antarctica.

    ‘This crack, which extends at least 18 miles and is 50 meters deep, could produce an iceberg more than 800 square kilometers in size.

    ‘IceBridge scientists returned soon after to make the first-ever detailed airborne measurements of a major iceberg calving in progress.’
    (Credit: NASA/Goddard/Jefferson Beck)

  119. ‘We definitely do need more icebergs.’

    It should keep the water fresh around the coast for some considerable time.

  120. Nature will do what it does, we have to accept that.

    But there has always been a reason for nature ‘doing what it does’

    The only reason to explain what it is doing now is the increase in C02.

    All other ‘natural’ reasons have been examined and discounted. No matter how hard you try to deny it.

  121. It’s not el gordo’s ceaseless string of erroneous statements, where often the sources given by el gordo don’t back or support those statements, but the way they are emphatically and unreservedly presented.

    Black and white, there is no latitude at all. It’s absolutely 100% the way el gordo says it is and everything else is wrong.

    Thing is that opposing scientists and true sceptics with expertise never couch their opposition or counter points in such an infrangible way, just as the proponents contend in probabilities and weight of evidence instead of absolutes. It is mostly the ignorant deniers who are so absolute whilst not having a braincell of expertise on global climate, only cherry picked, and as el gordo often demonstrates, often incorrectly interpreted content.

    There are a few exceptions on both sides of the expertise and science divide who are as inviolable as el gordo, but even then at least they come with some background knowledge, unlike el gordo whose expertise is in Google searches, yet still often manages to get that wrong.

    Move on, El gordo for a little while now has been throwing up random bits and pieces, distractions and sidetracks just to keep this going, and has now bought the topic to retorts of sarcasm on the back of the latest ludicrous statements.

  122. ‘The only reason to explain what it is doing now is the increase in C02.’

    Nothing unusual is happening, because CO2 does not cause global warming.

    ‘…and has now bought the topic to retorts of sarcasm on the back of the latest ludicrous statements.’

    Mobius, let’s talk about the relationship between ENSO and SAM?

  123. Another link from el gordo full of left wing bashing and little to do with climate change.

    This from the conference:

    The Kyoto agreement won’t die altogether in Durban; it may be extended for another five years without binding commitments from industrialized nations while programs for international carbon offsets are preserved as a way to compensate for emissions.

    Of course we have to move on from Kyoto. It was mostly a failure, but it was a very important first step in which many lessons have been learnt.

    The way the deniers go on, based on irrationality and ideological bashing rather than on any sound scientific basis, there should be no first steps or attempts to do anything. Just sit fat dumb and happy in our caves and ignore the raging changes around you.

  124. grodo
    But Kyoto looks dead in the water.

    What his (rubbish) link said
    The Kyoto agreement won’t die altogether in Durban;

    😯

    (Thanks for reading it for me ME 😉 )

  125. ‘Does the death of Kyoto mean that the thought of climate change is also dead and buried?’

    Natural climate change will still be of concern, but humanity will cope.

  126. Yes Tom. You can always trust on el gordo to throw in a link that confirms what you have just posted on not really reading or understanding the links being thrown up.

    It’s the trap you often fall into if you just go around the net and pick up links and sources you think confirm what your absolute contention is, but often on thorough reading and links within them, they don’t.

    It’s also the trap you fall into if as a non expert in a field you make absolute contentions on that field, especially if it’s a contrarian position because of ideology based on ignorance.

  127. It appear it is you who believes what you want through blinkered eyes or should I say Murdoch media eyes as you like to source them so much.

    Alan Oxley is an Australian academic, a lobbyist for free trade agreements, a climate change skeptic and trenchant critic of the Kyoto protocol

    Yet this man’s opinions are rightly sought after and are revered, on international trade that is.

    By the way he has heavily criticised much of the Liberals policies on trade and economics.

    If the Kyoto agreement completely collapses then come back and nya nya me el gordo,, otherwise it’s just another link you found that you thought you would scattergun here.

    Even if it does collapse it was still a vital first step and has lasted a long time despite all the vested interests through against it. And if nothing replaces it and action crumbles then guess who will be the first complaining about nothing being done if the climate does continue to warm.

  128. ‘…if the climate does continue to warm.’

    Do I sense a moment of uncertainty?

    There is no doubt in my mind that it will continue to cool.

  129. “There is no doubt in my mind that it will continue to cool.”

    And that is your big problem. How can you in your ignorance be so certain, especially when you like myself really don’t understand a fraction of the science?

    The thing that makes you look so silly in your constant certainty is that just about all the experts and specialists in the field are nowhere as certain as you are, and that’s on both sides.

    But somehow you would have us all believe you are gifted with an insight that makes you better than them all and better than us.

    I call crap when I read it, unless you are only trolling, but I give you the benefit of the doubt on that.

  130. If it does continue to warm el gordo will change IP and moniker and then run a long series of posts across several blogs blaming governments, IPCC and the climate scientists for not doing enough at the time.

    She will contend that she knew it was warming all along and had been saying so for a long time so how come everyone else couldn’t see that.

  131. ‘especially when you like myself really don’t understand a fraction of the science?’

    The scientists are expert in their narrow fields and are just as uncertain. When the UK Met recently said it was going to be a warm winter I believed them, because of their expertise and the science behind their thinking.

    A very positive NAO should have cleared the way for a balmy winter, but instead the UK is experiencing blizzard conditions.

    We got it wrong, good thing the salt is handy.

    This should not be happening in a slowly warming world.

  132. This is a couple of weeks old…

    ‘Carbon markets have been decimated this week, says Westpac’s carbon desk.

    ‘We’ve seen repeated falls of more than 5 per cent (up to 10 per cent) in European, New Zealand and international units.’

  133. When the Chicago carbon market closed earlier this year it became obvious cap and trade was dead.

    Julia should have taken this more seriously.

  134. It al seems a bit futile, buying into a falling market.

    Our cousins across the gap would like to see us onboard, understandably.

  135. If Julia understood the science she wouldn’t be in this political pickle, being carried aloft on a wave full of good intentions and vile expediency.

  136. Methinks el gordo is a closer match to Nils-Axel Morner than Bolt. Both Nils-Axel and el gordo throw up very similar junk science and mumbo jumbo.

    And does anyone else find it spooky that a crackpot has a name beginning with Nils that just happens to be the same as a common pet name for a certain poster here and elsewhere.

  137. Quite the contrary, el gordo, Julia is experiencing a rise in popularity. The pickle you mention is a bit out of date. Like your ideals, in a way. I much prefer your discussions on UFO’s which I understand from having seem one. Haven’t you also noticed that it’s getting warmer, or are you too busy watching the skies?

  138. This thread has almost finished, so if you have nothing further to add the result is ‘coolists 1…..warmists 0.

  139. El gordo and “this thread has almost finished…”. Heck no, my thread..el gordo is directed to the name of the author..guesss what, it’s me. I will decide when this thread has finished.

    Ok, I’ve decided..it’s finished. 🙂

  140. Bacchus, this of course is a trick question because there are neither coolists nor warmists because due climate change we will see both cooling and warming.

    The reasons for this are of course many and variable and it doesn’t take more than Year 8 science to work it out.

    Easy example, a place which was once littoral desert will see cooler/cold nights due to a decrease in cloud cover.

  141. Picked this up at Niche Modelling…

    ‘Global temperature TLT anomaly for RSS MSU is almost back to zero at 0.03C. The most reliable estimates of temperature have gone nowhere for over 30 years.’

  142. My topic was actually about the Great Southern Ocean. While some were fart arsing about whether or not climate change is ‘real’, there was actually some other things happening. For example, Japanese Whaling…

    So on Friday two Japanese whaling groups tried a very American tactic in resolving the long-running dispute: they’re taking the activists to court.

    Kyodo Senpaku Kaisha and the Institute of Cetacean Research said they filed a lawsuit in the Seattle District Court against the Sea Shepherd group, headquartered in the city, and its founder Paul Watson in an attempt to legally force the anti-whalers to stop harassing the country’s whaling fleet, according to a statement released Friday.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2011/12/09/japan-whalers-to-sea-shepherd-see-you-in-court/

  143. Nimue is correct, the natural global warming over the past two decades has now been absorbed by the oceans.

  144. Migs, according to el gordo all life forms are going to be able to run to the cupboard, pull out their biggest suitcase and move ‘elsewhere’, to move to more habitable climes.

  145. Picked this up at Niche Modelling…

    I’ll correct this for you el gordo. I know it’s a simple mistake and one easy made.

    Cherry picked this up at Niche Modelling….

  146. The oceans slowly absorb warmer or cooler atmospheric conditions, what we see here is a natural lag from late last century.

    If species become extinct because of natural warming, then we can assume they failed in the process of adaptation.

    The globe is naturally cooling in a regional sort of way and strangely it was Michael Mann who gave me the clues on how LIAs begin.

  147. I’m baffled

    Is gordo saying the Southern Ocean IS warming or ISN’T warming?

    so many variable positions in the one thread, it is bewildering (or is that the point)

  148. And there is also talk of a hiatus which may last a decade or two.

    Where did you get the ‘or two’ from?

    Are we there yet?

    Very nearly according to your link (if you don’t try to change what it is they are saying, like you have just done). In fact, it looks like things are about to hot up even more.

    So at some point in the very near future we can probably expect surface temperatures to gather up a head of steam, and begin rising at a rapid rate.

    So, what was your stance on the heating in hte Southern Ocean? Is it or isn’t it?

  149. ‘So at some point in the very near future we can probably expect surface temperatures to gather up a head of steam, and begin rising at a rapid rate.’

    Wishful thinking?

  150. Wishful thinking?

    Actually, it is observationally probable

    Browse these for a broader concept of what is happening.

    Personally, I’ll go with what hte scientists are saying. They have been far more accurate than your ramblings. And more consistent

  151. “Browse these for a broader concept of what is happening”.

    Let’s reword that:

    Browse these for a narrow concept of what is happening.

    Or:

    Browse these for a denialati concept of what is happening.

  152. No el gordo it is you who is not really interested in the science, only those bits and pieces you come across that you think supports your narrow ideological point of view.

  153. I take it you are not interested in the science?

    I have an interest, but I do not pretend to understand complex systems better than those who devote their lives to the pursuit.

    Unlike some armchair experts who have proven time again not only are they innacurate in their assumptions, but blatantly dishonest in many of their ‘scientific’ assertions.

    To put it bluntly, why do the denialists always end up lying to try and prove their point?

  154. Tony Burke is now speaking on The State of the Environment 2011 Report. This is the most comprehensive report on the environment, ever. It will be interesting to read, once released.

  155. If the planet is cooling and the oceans are warming and oceans cover over 70% of the planet, doesn’t this mean that the overall trend for the whole of the planet including oceans is that the temperature is rising ?

    I presume el gordo thinks the DoDo Bird became extinct because it did not adapt to the natural hunting by humans who arrived by boat on their island and ate them to extinction. 🙄

  156. Climate Change
    Momentum builds in Durban: smart countries take climate action

    http://acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=3583&eid=24344

    Date: 12-Dec-2011

    The agreements reached at the climate negotiations just concluded in Durban will advance action on climate but require strengthening over time, according to the Australian Conservation Foundation.

    Durban has succeeded in establishing a Green Climate Fund with commitments of $100 billion and a pathway for a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. It has also taken steps to establishing a 2015 timeline for a new global climate agreement, to include the US, China and all major emitters.

  157. Migs, if had been the Liberals then the only events to get a guernsey would be the Vatican and a far right-wing gab-fest in London. Oh hang on, Abbott’s already done this..his favorite events.

  158. A suggestion. As we have over 300 comments on this thread and the discussion is still pertinent, how about we continue over on Kevin’s Durban thread? All good?

  159. Pingback: Bugs and Krill, the Other White Meats: Time to Start Eating at the Bottom of the Food Chain It’s a massive paradigm shift: Raised on steak, we’re now facing a dung-beetle future. | ikners.com

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